The Penn State Football Show

Pete, I could not agree more. Rudy, your incredibly sound logic and in depth analysis has no purpose here. Its like trying to tell a blind man about a rainbow. Its a fruitless effort. Penn State-Michigan games are played in the twilight zone, where all rules governing the rest of the world cease to exist; and Penn State is the perennial Sisyphus, pushing that large boulder to the crest of the hill, only to have it fall back down again.

There is absolutely no reason Penn State will lose this game. But just as I have seen since I was 9 years old, they probably will. The stigma is still there. Rudy I think you're wrong if you don't think Chaz Powell cares about 2005. This is his team now and he's seen all the tape and heard all the stories about us getting jobbed. Did you guys hate your high school rival on your first game in uniform? I know I did. But then again I hate almost everybody so who knows maybe you're right.

I think the real bottom line of why Penn State loses to inferior teams comes down to coaching. We can prepare teams, put schemes together, and study film all we want, we are inferior in the punch-counter punch game of adapting to what's happening on the field. The quote I remember most after losing to Michigan the year of the Appalachian State debacle was maybe one of the most concise explanations I ever heard and it came from Peter Chalfin. "We knew there was a clear way to beat Michigan, by spreading the field and throwing the ball, and we knew Penn State wasn't going to do it." I don't think the same formula applies as far as a proven way to beat the Wolverines, but it still rings true in Penn State's unwillingness to change their game plan.

I hope to God we can go in and win tomorrow because the rest of our schedule is winnable and an at large BCS bid is easily attainable. But truth be told, we are not a great team on the road. Which is shocking because how can any team lose looking that good? I think it will end just as Pete says, with a last minute miracle drive the burns a Penn State D playing too conservative with help from a hometown officiating crew.

-Mandie Reed

Pete I understand where you are coming from and last year's victory over Michigan certainly didn't feel that great, just as the win over Notre Dame in 2007 didn't feel like it should have. But that is because both of those teams sucked when we beat them. They weren't hard fought meaningful wins. Tomorrow will be. Yes Tate Forcier is very talented, but everyone is hyping this kid up quite a bit based on some spectacular plays that he has made. What they don't take note of are his mistakes. In every meaningful game that they have played thus far, he's thrown a pick (those are games against ND, MSU, Indiana, and Iowa). Sure he led some nice drives and certainly has the talent to be great at times, but a real telling sign was against Iowa where he threw a pick, fumbled, and on several occasions tried to scramble on third down instead of trying to get it through the air. He is a freshman, and granted so was Ryan Mallett, but a few things are different.

Penn State has lost 3 games in the last 2 years. Two against Iowa where the losses were because of poor execution, turnovers, and settling for field goals. The other was against USC where PSU was simply overmatched. Over these two years Penn State's coaches have done a great job of gameplanning. They have handled mobile quarterbacks remarkably well (Juice, Pryor), and even the gameplan this year against Iowa was pretty agressive....they just lost the game because of turnovers. Michigan's defense is pretty lousy outside of big #55, but he alone won't be able to control the most balanced offensive team Michigan has faced.

Thus far Michigan has faced 4 quality opponents who are all averaging around 120-130 yards a game on the ground. All of those teams rushed over their average against Michigan. Penn State is averaging close to 190 yards a game. I expect them to maintain that average this week. A lot of people expect the Wolverines to put 8 men in the box to slow down the rushing attack, but this Penn State team has seen this all season and has improved, plus Michigan's defensive backs have been ineffective in both tackling and coverage. I personally feel that this Penn State team is flying under the radar and has great potential.

On the defensive side of the ball, Penn State is improving every week. I can't see Michigan scoring more than 21 points in this game. The PSU defensive backs have really proven themselves, and last week we finally saw Bradley use some aggressive play by the corners. They were up on the line harassing Decker, and he was held in check all game. A key for Penn State will be getting pressure on the QB without blitzing. If they can do that, they can essentially take away the passing game much like what Iowa did. This will be easier said than done because Michigan does get their starting center back from an injured foot, but Odrick and Ogbu are a force to be reckoned with. Sean Lee is expected to be in on roughly 30-35 plays, but I can assure you that if this is a close one and he feels good, he'll be out there a lot more. This defense hasn't played a great offense yet, but they are more physical than last year, and other than at DE they are better at every position.

Stephfon Green will not be making the trip which should give us all a look at Beachum that we have been waiting patiently for although I suspect Royster will get a heavier load. BB3 lowers his shoulder and lays the boom on anyone he sees and Michigan's very average linebacking core could receive some punishment. What Michigan has going for them is that they are risky, and have the chance to put up some big plays. They are also at home and have a dynamic defensive end and a filthy punter. What about Penn State you ask? They are the better team. They can dominate on the offensive side of the ball, their defense is stacked, athletic, fast, and punishing. If they can limit their mistakes and not hurt themselves I see them cruising to a win. A key will be to take it to Michigan early and get the crowd out of it a bit, and put pressure on Forcier and the offense. When he gets a little desperate he forces things and Penn State needs to be ready to grab some INT's. I'm sick of people being mystified and afraid of Michigan...like Paterno said, this stadium is nothing special, Michigan fans are weak-sauce, and Rich-Rod is not fit to be a BIG10 coach. I have been very encouraged with the coaching this year and last, and with the way this team has responded after the Iowa game. They have done nothing but get better, faster, smarter, sexier, everything. AJ Wallace is getting A's, Josh Hull's moustache looks fuller and more vibrant, and Sean Lee is so jacked that he committed the first penalty of his life last week when he threw a trident threw some dude's chest. I am jacked up for this game, and I know Penn State is too. OHHH BABY!

After a little research and some simple Excel calculations, I pulled together a couple statistics regarding conference strength of schedules. Using the Week 7 strength of schedule rankings provided by the Rogers Poll (link here), Rankings were determined by calculating the average SOS rating for each conference with the highest average rating being the best.

All you SEC fans out there, hold onto your hats, you may not like what you are about to see.

Listed below are the Week 7 BCS Strength of Schedule Rankings with total points shown in parentheses:

• #1 - PAC-10 (559.32)
• #2 - SEC (546.42)
• #3 - ACC (527.19)
• #4 - Big12 (497.72)
• #5 - Big10 (495.63)
• #6 - Big East (469.67)

Check back each week as I will try and post updated SOS rankings on a weekly-basis. Also, feel free to share your thoughts in the comments section below.

Note: PSU (411.70) and Michigan (471.79) are ranked #99 and #67 respectively in this week's individual SOS rankings.

The title of this post might lead you to believe that I'm set to extol the virtues of Lee, Clark, and the rest of the Penn State 4th and 5th year degree seekers. You would be wrong, because I'm referring to myself. After years of pent up demand, administrators have relented and allowed my expertise the opportunity to breathe. You're welcome, America.

It's Michigan week, and there is consternation abound regarding the Nittany's ability to handle what has become the bi-annual death march to Ann Arbor. History suggests that some of this is warranted, however, it's worth examining the basic facts of the matter a hand. Consider:

Michigan is 5-2 overall with a 1-2 record in the Big Ten. They share a common defeat with Penn State in the form of the unbeaten Hawkeyes, as well as an overtime loss at Michigan State. The latter is somewhat forgivable on its face being a road game, in conference, and a natural rivalry, but the number that should stick out is 20. As in the number of points scored against the Spartans in more than 4 quarters.

Because, you see, the reason that Michigan is supposedly good is the offensive side of the ball. Their defensive production of 363 yards/game allowed is middle of the pack in the NCAA and doesn't scare anyone. The offensive numbers are impressive though. 37 points/game is good for ninth in the nation. The rushing stats for Rich Rod's offense (of which I am actually a huge fan) come in at at gaudy 235 yards/game, good for 8th in the country. No doubt, those digits will get your attention.

But why not take a closer look at UM's victories? 31 points vs Western Michigan, 38 vs Notre Dame, 45 vs Eastern Michigan, 36 vs Indiana, and 63 vs Delaware State last week. Great numbers, sure, but not a worthy foe in the bunch. And before anyone protests, Notre Dame blows, and it shall not be discussed further. The Wolverines put up a valiant fight on the road at unbeaten Iowa, scoring 28 points, but they gave up 30 so it doesn't matter. In the end, Michigan has played about as well as can be expected, and hasn't really beaten anyone.

Of course, in large part, the same can be said about Penn State. The offensive numbers are more than respectable. 433 yards/game is good for top 20 in the land. The scoring average of 29.6/game is also in the upper echelon and 2nd in the Big Ten behind only Michigan. But the hallmark of Linebacker U's 2009 campaign is defense, as the numbers show. Coming off of a shutout of Minnesota, the PSU defense is giving up 8.7 points/game, tied with Florida for tops in the country. Their 239 yards allowed/game is 5th in the NCAA, and importantly as it relates to Michigan, the rush defense is allowing a paltry 75.4 yards/game. That is good for 6th in Division 1.

But by whom have these stout defensive numbers come at the expense? The answers are of course Akron, Syracuse, Temple, Eastern Illinois, Minnesota, Illinois, and Iowa. Despite the loss to Iowa, the defense indeed held up its end of the bargain against an unbeaten team. It is worth noting, however, the non conference schedule was collectively non-threatening. So is the defense any good? Unlike the Michigan offense with great numbers, I contend the Penn State defense is every bit the unit the numbers dictate.

There was big time worry about replacing an entire secondary, but Lynn and Morris have forced their way on the field as freshman, and that says a lot from a Joe Paterno coached team. Astorino has been solid and even AJ Wallace's corpse has risen from the dead to be serviceable and even help preserve the shutout last week. The players in the box have been exemplary, and much has already been accomplished without sizable contributions from All American Sean Lee. Thankfully, #45 seems to be rounding back into shape for the heart of Big Ten play. Bowman rested an ankle against two high school caliber teams and has come back fresh and terrifying owning every piece of green between the sidelines. Josh Hull has been a good solider, endured criticism, and is having a nice season around the ball. Games are won and lost in the trenches and here Penn State has excelled. Odrick might be a dick, but he has few peers in the college game. The best name in college football, Ollie Ogbu, continues to impress and Jack Crawford regularly exhibits freakish athleticism. Jerome Hayes has come back time and time again and is contributing.

And herein lies the key to Penn State/Michigan. UM has run up big numbers on below average competition, rarely being challenged at the line. They can only run what plays a defense will allow them. When injuries are not a factor, which they are not currently for Penn State, stopping the run is a team skill set that is slump proof. PSU's run stopping personnel is better across the board than Michigan's offensive front, and I see no reason why Michigan should expect to impose their will.

Penn State's offense is not in the dynamic mold of the Robinson led 2005 team, but it can be serviceable if Clark makes good decisions. The Michigan defense is not scaring anyone, and Penn State should be able to move the ball well with execution. That's always a big if, but across the board, I'm seeing Penn State with the advantage in most relevant match ups here.

Let's face it. There are three teams, Florida, Texas, and USC, that have great players at every position every year and are in position to contend. There is a second tier of teams, PSU is a member, that are very good and break through in some years to contend. In other years, they are still good, but suffer a bad loss or two and fall out of the national title race. This is Penn State this year. They have the most complete team in the Big Ten, but suffered the inexplicable loss to Iowa. Clark was terrible, but that was a program failure. Everyone understands you need home games for revenue, but when you play three straight games to start the year that require no effort or real planning to dominate, you are naturally going to relax a bit. It's human nature. They were not prepared for a hungry Iowa team, and got embarrassed at home. It doesn't mean they don't have excellent players. Players in any sport need to be constantly pushed, or performance wanes. Nobody says you have to schedule Alabama every year, but a couple Oregon State level opponents at home is the proper way to prepare for a championship run.

I believe Penn State has woken up. I know the Big House has been one of horrors, but Lloyd Carr ain't walking through that door, and these players don't care what's happened over the last 10 years. Any way you look at it, Penn State wins the majority of relevant match ups with Michigan across the board. Chalfin will tell you there is some mysticism at work and that Penn State has no chance this Saturday. Just call me Bizarro Pete. Nittanys roll 27-10.

I was hoping that the win last year over Michigan would get the monkey of my back and completely end the curse, but it definitely hasn't. Nine straight losses really took its toll on me, and I am having very serious doubts as to whether or not there will ever come a point in my life where I feel comfortable and confident heading into a game against the Wolverines.

Ever since I saw Forcier lead Michigan to a win over Notre Dame, I've been certain that they would beat us. And I know exactly how. It will be a great game, as usual. Back and forth - a lot like 05. Close, low scoring at first, and then opens up in the second half. Just when one team gets some momentum, the other comes back and takes the lead. It will come down to the wire, Forcier will make amazing play after amazing play, and lead the Wolverines to the game winning touchdown with less than 2 minutes to go. All you will hear about is how good Tate Forcier is, and it will be at this moment that he becomes your most hated player. And this is just his first of four wins against Penn State. I'm just hoping that this year's loss won't leave me as depressed as usual, because I already know exaclty what is going to happen.

On paper, Penn State is the better team and should win this game. The Lions have by far the best defense in the Big Ten, and one of the best in the country. And they are not even at full strength. But I've seen much better Nittany Lion teams than this one go into Ann Arbor and lose to much worse Michigan teams than this one. And you have too. And you know it.

Two years ago.. Michigan starts the season losing to APPALACHIAN STATE, then gets demolished by Oregon, both games at home. Both games the defense got absolutely torched all day long. On top of that, they lose their senior quarterback the week before the Penn State game, and are forced to start a true freshman just out of high school in his first ever career start. And they still beat a top 15 Penn State team. Are you kidding me?

The Lions will find a way to lose this game. Michigan has a terrible secondary. Penn State should be able to pass on them all day. But who knows if they will actually take advantage of that or not.

You can ignore me if you want, but don't say I didn't warn you. You will be much less miserable on Saturday night if you just come to terms in advance with the fact that Penn State will lose to Michigan on Saturday.

The preseason is over, and the Lions are staring a five-game stretch including three matchups (@MICH, OSU, @MSU) that will determine the fate of their season. Quick side note - what an over used cliche, "determine the fate of their season" is...thank you captain obvious, because we failed to realize that if we lose 3 of our next 5, the season was a disappointment.

Eastern Illinois was essentially a multi million-dollar bye-week, and although there is much controversy surrounding the decision to play FCS opponents, I will refrain from wasting our readers' (if any) time and keystrokes arguing the matter.

PSU fans got what they wanted out of the Minnesota game. Dominance on the defensive side of the ball, signs of consistency and play making abilities on the offense (Derek Moye), and a shut-out win with no major injuries (sans SG21's "Chronic Ankle Injury", but I'm on the Beachum-waggon as of late).

Now on to Michigan and the "Big House". We all know of PSU's recent struggles on the road, not to mention in Ann Arbor. Call me crazy, but I have a hard time year-in and year-out buying into the whole hoopla of "Penn State can't win in the Big House". I look at it from a different perspective. Simply put, the Lions have simply lost a series of close games. Do you think DeVon Smith and Chaz Powell give two-licks about what happened in 2005? Most likely not, this is 2009, and they have a chance to show the nation they are capable of winning on the road in a nationally televised game.

Did anyone forget the media hype prior to last year's trip to Columbus. "PSU hasn't won in the horseshoe since Tebow parted the Red Sea". Check that one off the list, Penn State may have played conservatively, but in the end, they came out with the W.

What am I getting at? Not really sure, I didn't map this post out entirely before I started typing. I think the fact of the matter is this, the Lions SHOULD win this game, and if they don't, it's most likely going to be because they beat themselves with mistakes like turnovers and penalties.

Tate Forcier and Denard Robinson are clearly capable of moving the ball and putting up points, but let's not lose sight of the sound defense PSU has played thus far and the possible addition of Sean Lee this weekend (although I'm not so sure he is still going to be effective).

Once again, PSU is in somewhat of a lose-lose situation. They lose this game, and the media will continue to beat them into the ground and their inability to perform in the Big House. They win this game, and Michigan could very easily get off playing the "young" and "inexperienced" card. Either way, it should be an exciting game.

Outside the lines:

• Gotta love JoePa's slam on the Big House during his weekly press conference, adding "I don't think its a rather difficult place to play".
• Correction - Somehow I missed Purdue's natural grass playing surface when discussing BigTen teams using FieldTurf.
• Beaver Stadium announced an attendance of 107,800 during the Minnesota snowball fest. Not only was this false, it was comical.
• Can't agree more with Drew's comment on the Nittany Lion's "Thriller Dance". The only thing worse would be to replace the 80's cladded background dancers with members of the '86 National Championship team. Isn't it about time they get their annual half-time honoring, anyway?
• Replays! Beaver Stadium game day coordinators came to play last weekend, showing a number of controversial replays including the DM6 touchdown catch that was eventually turned-over. Glad to see Guido is reading the blog.

The Lions face a stiff test this weekend on the road, but it is their game to lose. DC17 is surrounded by play makers. Coaching will be key. Will PSU buck the conservative trend and spread the ball around? Or will they place a death-grip on a 3rd-quarter lead similar to Ohio State last year?

In the end, the team that scores more points will win this one, and the outcome will play a large part in determining the fate of the Lions' season. Duh.

Sorry for not posting in about 6 months, I do not have Internet access during the evenings. PSU 27 Mich 17. Please let me know if you will be at the Ohio State game, I will be in attendance