Sunday, April 12, 2009
PROSPECTS I LIKE
MICHAEL CRABTREE WR TEXAS TECH– Crabtree is listed first on this list for a very good reason. He is, in my opinion, the best overall player in this draft. He measured out a littler shorter than I had anticipated at 6’1”, which hurts him a little, but he is still an absolute STUD.
The guy has great size, great hands, adequate speed, knows how to get open, and most importantly, he makes plays. We all saw how clutch he was with that incredible game-winning catch against Texas.
Some people have concerns about his speed. In response to that, I would just like to remind everyone that there were also concerns over the speed of Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin coming out of college. The reason Boldin fell to the second round was because he ran somewhere in the 4.6-4.7 range in the 40. Big deal. The guy makes plays, and so does Crabtree.
Crabtree didn’t run at the combine because of his foot injury. Most people guess he would clock in around the 4.5-4.6 range. Personally, I don’t really care what his 40 time is. Forty times are overrated, and Boldin and Fitzgerald proved that. We all saw Fitz run away from everyone on that go-ahead touchdown in the Super Bowl. Fitz is not a 4.4 guy. But I don’t think anyone would argue that he is not fast. You don’t need to run a 4.4 to be a great wide receiver in the NFL, and that is a fact.
Somehow, there are talks of Crabtree falling to the fifth pick. I even read yesterday the possibility of him slipping to ten. (Which would please me very much, provided that my 49ers did the right thing and snagged him at 10. Actually if he made it past six and they didn’t make a move to trade up and get him I would be frustrated.) But Crabtree falling to ten would just be ludicrous. This guy should not make it out of the top four, and if I’m an NFL team, and he does fall past four, I would try very hard to trade up and grab him.
Players like Crabtree don’t come around very often. He was the best wide receiver in the country as a freshman at Texas Tech, and won back to back Biletnikoff awards in his first two seasons. In recent memory, top wide receiving prospects have included Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, and Calvin Johnson. Now there is Michael Crabtree, and I feel confident putting him in the same class as those others.
Okay, now that I’ve adequately expressed my man-crush on Michael Crabtree, I can move on to the other guys in this draft that I like:
RASHAD JOHNSON SAFETY ALABAMA– Johnson was the unquestioned leader of one of the best defenses in the country. He’s not the biggest or the fastest, but he is a definitely a player.
STEPHEN MCGEE QUARTERBACK TEXAS A&M – Outside of the Big Two, there are not a lot of quarterbacks I like in this class. McGee may be the one exception. I’ve seen him in a couple games, including the Alamo Bowl against Penn State. His best asset is his mobility. He is a great runner and can throw pretty well on the run. He does have a good arm, as well, which I don’t think many people realize. He is good at making plays stay alive with his feet after the play breaks down. He is a tough competitor and a good leader. He seems to have all the tools, but never really put it all together at A&M. He has pretty good size at almost 6’3” and 220 lbs. If he falls into a good system with a good coach, I wouldn’t be surprised seeing him become an NFL starter. He should be available for someone to take in the fourth or fifth rounds.
CHRIS WELLS RUNNING BACK OHIO STATE – Chris Wells, when healthy, is a dominant running back. At 6’1 235 lbs, he is a very big back, and he uses his size well, often falling forward when tackled to pick up an extra couple of yards. He also utilizes his vicious stiff arm at the end of plays to get some extra yardage. He reminds me a lot of Larry Johnson. Both share similar body frames – not only are they both 230+ lbs., but at 6’1”+, they are two of the taller backs in the league. The two have very similar running styles too. Great power backs that take some time to get up to full speed, but once they do, they are extremely tough to bring down, especially in the open field.
Wells, in my opinion, is one of those guys that really needs to land with a good offense. Like LJ, he benefits more than most by playing behind a great offensive line. Since they take a while to get to full speed and are not very shifty, they lack the ability to make plays on their own if the play breaks down. He needs a big hole to run through, but if the hole is there, Wells will find it and burst through it as well as anybody. However, if his offensive line struggles (see the game against Penn State in 2008), he becomes a complete non-factor. If he goes to the wrong team, he could be extremely ineffective.
You may be reading this and thinking that I’m just stating the obvious. Of course all running backs perform better when they have better offensive lines in front of them. And that is true. But I would argue that certain players benefit more than others by a good offensive line – and NEED a good offensive line more than others. Just look at Larry Johnson. When Kansas City had a strong offensive line with Willie Roaf and Will Shields, Johnson was arguably the best running back in the NFL, rushing for 1,750+ yards in back to back seasons. When the offensive line began to deteriorate, Johnson’s numbers plummeted, failing to reach the 1,000 yard mark in either of the next two seasons. I know that the Chiefs had one of the best offensive lines in the league in 2005 and 2006, but I don’t believe that there are many, if any, other running backs that could have been as dominant those years as LJ was. Conversely, I think there are some backs that could have played with the poor offensive lines that KC has had the past two years, and been much more effective than LJ has been. For example, more consistent guys like Brian Westbrook or Tiki Barber still would have been able to put up respectable numbers despite Kansas City’s poor offensive line. But would they have been as dominant as LJ was with the great offensive line? I don’t think so.
So, depending on which team Wells goes to, he could either be my favorite to win Rookie of the Year, or he could be my pick to be a first-year bust. But trust me, if he goes to a team with a good offensive line, the guy will be a force at the next level. He is physically ready for the NFL right now, and is capable of being a Pro-Bowler in his rookie season. He will be drafted somewhere between picks 10-20.
MIKE GOODSON RUNNING BACK TEXAS A&M– I was really impressed with his quickness when I saw him play against Penn State in the Alamo Bowl. His 40 time wasn’t as fast as I had expected (4.54), but he is very shifty and elusive. He is also a capable receiver. I think Goodson can make for a perfect third-down back. He will never be an every-down back in the NFL, but could be a very productive role player on a team looking for a quick back that’s a reliable receiver on third downs.
MARK SANCHEZ QUARTERBACK SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA – I think Mark Sanchez is going to have a very solid NFL career at quarterback, but he is definitely not ready to start right away. He has shown me all the tools. He has a strong arm, throws well on the run, and has adequate mobility for a quarterback. He needs to work on secondary reads if his primary target is not open, but with proper coaching, he should improve on that. The key to Sanchez as I touched on earlier, is that he needs time to develop. He only started for one year at USC, and he is not ready to start in the NFL. I’m actually of the opinion that no quarterback should ever start in their rookie year in the NFL. I would always give them at least one year to be a backup and learn the system and adjust to the speed of the game before throwing a quarterback in with the wolves. However, with Sanchez in particular, he needs to go to a team that will allow him to sit on the bench for a year and develop. If this happens, I think he will be successful when his time eventually comes. (I think Matt Leinart will be successful when he gets a shot, and I thought the same about Aaron Rodgers.) Sanchez will be an interesting player to watch in this draft. Most mocks have him lasting until at least the tenth pick, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see someone try to trade up and get him anywhere between picks six and twelve. He could also be drafted by someone and then traded.
HAKEEM NICKS WIDE RECEIVER NORTH CAROLINA – Ideal size and great hands. Good concentration when the ball is in the air, and does a good job of going up and getting it in traffic. Adequate but not elite speed. Not a burner so he won’t be used as a deep threat. Good coaching could improve his route-running and ability to get open. Should make a solid NFL wide receiver, and is worth a late-first round pick in my opinion.
BRANDON TATE WIDE RECEIVER NORTH CAROLINA – Tate was way up on my board before he got hurt. He was off to a fantastic start in the 2008 season, making some great plays for the Tar Heels. The injury really cost him, but assuming he can return to 100%, Tate could be a steal if he slips to the mid-rounds. He adds value as a return-man. He has good speed and overall ability, and decent but not ideal size.
BRIAN ROBISKIE WIDE RECEIVER OHIO STATE – He is a very polished receiver and may be one of the most NFL-ready players in this draft. He had a very productive career at Ohio State. His numbers tailed off in his senior year, but that was a direct result of Terrelle Pryor taking over at quarterback. He has great hands and incredible concentration. I’ve seen him make a handful of great catches through the years against Penn State. I never realized he was as big as he is (6’3”, 210 lbs.) or as fast as he is (4.49 at combine), but both of those numbers really add to his value. Robiskie is one of those players where you know exactly what you are getting when you draft him. He most likely won’t be a team’s number one target, but will make for consistent number two option. A perfect possession receiver. He should go somewhere in round two or three, and should benefit a team right away, and for years to come. I expect him to have a long, consistent, solid NFL career.
MALCOLM JENKINS CORNERBACK OHIO STATE – There are a lot of questions about whether he is fast enough to play corner or if he will have to be moved to safety. In terms of the draft, that is a big difference, because corners are hot commodities, but safeties are rarely taken early in the first round. Here is a case where the 40 time plays a crucial role in someone’s draft stock. Had Jenkins ran a 4.4 forty, he would be a top 10 pick without a doubt. Since he ran in the 4.5 range, he most likely will slip to the middle or the end of the first round. I don’t know whether or not he can be a corner in the NFL. What I do know is that he is a good football player with great instincts and a natural ball hawk. Wherever he plays, he will be successful.
WILLIAM MOORE – William Moore is a very interesting prospect. Heading into his senior year, he was the consensus top safety for the 2009 draft. Then he struggled through an injury plagued senior year and fell on most draft boards. There is still a debate as to where he should be rated. I’m going to take the side that argues that his poor senior year was a direct result of his injuries, and therefore scouts should look at his junior year tape, which is spectacular. Just look at his numbers from that year: 115 total tackles, eight INTs and five PBUs. He has ideal size at 6’ 220 lbs. He has good speed and great ability to go up and get the ball at its highest point. Assuming he gets back to full health and can play at the level he played during his junior year, I think Moore can be a great value pick in the late second round.
