Saturday, August 28, 2010

Early Season Predictions

Thank God its time for football again. Blame it on advances in technology and this new generation needing more and more stimulus if you like, but I cannot survive on baseball alone. I am so effing bored. Football time gentlemen, football time.

The fears for this season have been well stated and fairly obvious. I especially enjoyed Jason's quote regarding our quarterback situation. The second I hear the words "two quarterback system" come out of any coaches mouth I am completely packing it in for the season. This has never worked beyond a few gimmick plays for any team ever. Save for maybe Florida in which they used Tebow as the equivalent of William The Refrigerator Perry. And people can talk all they like about how with our running game we won't need our QB to do all that much but I think we know without the threat of the pass nothing works. The offense becomes very predictable and even the defense plays very tentative because they know their offense can't put points back on the board should they get burned.

I'll say again what I've always said, success for Penn State starts at the offensive line. We could have the most talented backfield in the country but without solid blocking we have nothing. Although this isn't one of the worst lines we've had in recent years, it isn't the best either. Overall I think we have the ingredients for a very ineffective offense.

The defense is an entirely different story. Obviously we lost a few guys but I am really excited to see Jack Crawford break out and I have extreme confidence in our safeties and corners. But again, Bradley has been known to pull the reigns and employ a "bend don't break" style defense when our offense is weak.

As far as predictions, I feel like you can count on losses to Bama, OSU, and Iowa. And Penn State teams like this in the past end up getting snakebit by a team they shouldn't lose to. Looking at our schedule I struggle to find it but I know its in there. And although my outlook on the season is pretty dismal, its still way better than watching the damn Pirates.

Thursday, August 26, 2010

Season Outlook

My outlook for this season is very similar to Rudy’s. I think we can all agree it’s going to be a rebuilding year, and another top 10 finish is extremely unlikely. But, just like Rudy, it is for that very reason that I’m particularly excited for and intrigued by this year’s team. It’s been a while since the Lions have had so many question marks and so many new players seeing action for the first time. I’m very much looking forward to seeing how these guys perform.

I agree with you guys that at this time, 2011 looks like it could be a good year for Penn State. But I’m always hesitant to look ahead like that with any certainty. You never really know what could happen from now until then, and the picture isn’t really that clear. There is no question that someone needs to step up at quarterback in order for the team to succeed.

Speaking of which, there has been a lot of buzz about Bolden so far this pre-season. Before we get too crazy, let’s keep a few things in mind: First, it’s extremely unlikely that he is the starting quarterback against Youngstown State on opening day. I’ve heard a lot of rumors that he will be, but I won’t believe that until I actually see it. Jason, you mentioned Zach Mills as being a freshman starter… but he was a redshirt freshman, not a true freshman, and there is a HUGE difference. Having a full year under your belt can make a world of difference, just learning the playbook and the speed of the game, not to mention adjusting to college life. Keep in mind, Bolden just graduated from high school. He didn’t enroll early last spring like many recruits do these days, although he did arrive in State College right after high school let out, so he has been around all summer. Lets also not forget that it took an injury to Matt Sennecca (who sucked) for Mills to even be entered into the starting line-up. So I personally do buy into the “Joe won’t start a freshman QB” belief, because it’s true. And while Joe has taken a lot of heat, and rightfully so, for benching younger more talented players (LaVar Arrington) in favor of older less talented veterans that have put their time in, I am with him when it comes to QB’s. I don’t think you can really expect much out of a true freshman quarterback, and I would be very hesitant to put a guy in there too soon. In my opinion, Bolden will be the starter by the end of this season. But I’ll be shocked if he’s the guy from day one. If he is, that is the indicator that Joe is either not making any decisions for the team any more, or he’s just completely out of it.

Second thing to keep in mind is even if Bolden is a legitimate star, he’s certainly going to have some ups and downs as a freshman. NOBODY is a stud from day one. Not Peyton Manning, not Drew Brees, nobody. So if he is named the starter, be excited that they have found a young talent for the next few years, just don’t expect him to be the savior right away.

I think this is a very talented yet inexperienced team, so they will struggle early. By the end of the year, I think they will be very competitive. I think it’s a shame the game against Alabama is the second week of the season, because the Lions simply will not be ready for the Crimson Tide, and I don’t expect a close game. Whoever the quarterback is, he will not be prepared to play at night in Tuscaloosa against the #1 team and defending national champions in just his second career start. The offensive line and defense, while talented, will only have played one game together as a unit at that point, and that is not sufficient time to gel. It could be ugly.

I think it will be a very fun season to follow Penn State football. I think the team will show a lot of promise for the future, but in terms of record, I see them losing at least four games this year, probably more. For the first time in a while, the Big Ten is actually looking pretty good this year, with OSU, Iowa and Wisconsin all potential top 10 teams.

It's good to be back...

Wednesday, August 25, 2010

This year's team isn't being given a chance. Some years you just aren't going to be as good, and expectations are lower....nothing is wrong with that.

For the first time ever, a team is playing against three BCS bowl winners from the previous season....that's Penn State...and all three of those games are on the road.

The Lions lost all three starting linebackers, all of whom were drafted and are playing in the NFL preseason.

The team lost the Big Ten offensive and defensive player of the year.

Some may look at this situation with disgust, knowing that this team has no shot at a National Championship, but sometimes these are the seasons I look forward to the most. Knocking off any one of Alabama, Iowa, or Ohio State would make the season memorable. Evan Royster will likely become the all-time leading rusher in Penn State history. JoePa will reach 400 victories. True freshmen will turn heads and gain valuable game experience heading into the majestic 2011 season. That's when we make our run. 2011. All the pieces are in place....and there has been a trend.

Every three years, Penn State makes a push. 1999 - They started 9-0 and were ranked 2nd in the nation before....well...you know. 2002 - They reemerge as a power after annihilating #7 Nebraska behind Larry Johnson and Zack Mills and finish the regular season in the top 10. 2005 - They once again reemberge from the worst stretch of JoePa's career and finish the season ranked #3. 2008 - After 2 so-so seasons of Anthony Morelli, the Lions fall one game short of a National Championship birth and reach the Rose Bowl. 2011 - Oh mama.

But it's 2010...and I'm still excited. We will witness Robert Bolden get his foot in the door, Silas Redd run by a defense, Curtis Dukes flatten a few dudes, Michael Mauti emerge as the next great LB along with Gerald Hodges, Jack Crawford absolutely dominate, and the secondary in man coverage. The team has more talent than last year...they just aren't as good......yet. Each position has so much potential, it just isn't fully matured. This team will be a force at the end of the season. Beating 'Bama will be incredibly difficult, but Ohio State will be a very tight game. They will continue to evolve all the way into 2011 when they will make their run. And it will be glorious.