The Penn State Football Show

Bowl games are always tough to predict. Neither team has played in a month. Often one of the teams is disappointed with their season and in turn the bowl game they are in, and as a result, a win in some crappy bowl doesn't make much difference to them because it doesn't save their season. While the other team may be very pleased with the bowl game they are in, and look at it is an opportunity to cap off a tremendous year with a big win. Depending on the situation, you don't always get equal efforts out of both teams. Additionally, out of all of these bowl games, only one of them is for the national championship. So what, exactly, are all the other teams playing for? All of these factors contribute to making college bowl games so unpredictable, that professional gamblers avoid them like the plague. You just have no clue what you're going to get out of the two teams playing.

This particular bowl game, has a few extra factors thrown into the mix that make it a whole lot more confusing.

UF

1. Florida's Head Coach Urban Meyer is retiring and this bowl game will be his last. Does this mean he will work extra hard to go out with a victory, or does it mean he's already thinking about his retirement and hasn't really been preparing for this game as he usually would? Does this mean the players will work extra hard to make sure to send their coach out with a win? Or are they too disappointed/distracted to focus on this game.

2. Florida's Offensive Coordinator is leaving next year to take over as the Head Coach at Temple. How focused on this game can he be? Is he already looking ahead to his next gig at Temple? It's never to early to start recruiting... How much effort is he putting into this game?

3. Florida's starting QB is rumored to be considering transferring schools for next year. Again, how will that affect his focus/preparation for this game?


PSU

1. Rumors have been flying around about Coach Paterno's health declining and the possibility that this is his last game. Every indication from Paterno insists none of this is true and he will be back next year. If the rumors are true, the repurcussions on this game are obvious... The heach coach hasn't been around to coach the team, the players/assistant coaches may be distracted/worried about Paterno or wondering who will be taking over, etc. But even if it's not true, you have to wonder how much of this stuff is heard and believed by the players, and how distracted they are.

2. Tom Bradley interviewed for the Temple job and most reports indicate he would have brought Vanderlinden and McQueary with him there. That means three of the coaches were very close to leaving PSU. If they thought such a big life change was imminent, that had to have taken away from their focus and preparation for this game.


Anyway, as you can see, there are a lot going on behind the scenes leadinig up to this game. HBO could have done a 24/7 series for this specific bowl game and would have had plenty to talk about.

After giving you my list of reasons why this game is impossible to predict, I will go ahead and make my prediction:

In recent bowl games, Penn State has had success pulling out surprise victories in bowls I don't expect them to win against SEC teams I felt were superior (Tennessee in 2006 and LSU last year). So it's possible they could do the same against Florida this year. However, I think Urban Meyer is a great coach that is well liked by most of his players and assistant coaches, and I think, despite all of the potential distractions, the entire team is determined to send Meyer out with a win. As a result, I see Florida winning this game in a dominant fashion.

It is now post-Christmas and some of the coaching names that were being tossed around are now moot. I must first address the absolute shenanigans surrounding this whole coaching shake up. WTF? How in the world does Sue Paterno have to justify knowing her husband is not in the hospital? Is this what media in this country has become? A chain e-mail started by some mook with a subscription to Blue-White Illustrated? I mean good gravy. I actually lost it on my Dad pretty hard for spreading these rumors around at Christmas dinner, not because I knew they were false or anything but I automatically knew the source of them was totally bogus. I blame ESPN for coining the phrase "A source close to the program." Typing those words or saying them during an official broadcast should be punishable by death henceforth. Also let me say that I've been hearing for close to 15 years now that "This will definitely be Joe's last season/game." Also now punishable by death.