The Penn State Football Show

AQ SHIPLEY - I expect AQ Shipley to have a solid NFL career. He is a hard worker and a leader, and can be a solid NFL center for the next 12 years. He is inhibited by a lack of height and short arms, which will scare of some teams. However, I expect Shipley to be taken somewhere around the 4th, 5th or 6th rounds.

GERALD CADOGAN – Cadogan has the ideal size for an NFL tackle. I think he may be a little too soft for the NFL, but I thought he would be too soft for the Big Ten, and he proved me wrong. He will be drafted in the late rounds, but I would be surprised to see him become an NFL starter.

LYDELL SARGEANT – Sargeant has gotten more attention for this draft than I had expected. I don’t see him being successful in the NFL. I’ve always thought that Tony Davis was a much better corner. Sargeant is not physical enough to play corner in the NFL. Beyond that, he is not even close to being good enough in coverage to make up for his lack of physicality by being a cover-corner. If Sargeant gets drafted, it will be a late round pick.

MAURICE EVANS – I have no clue what to project for Evans. His sophomore season he looked like a guaranteed top 15 pick. Somehow he managed to play so poorly his senior year, that he has fallen out of the first three rounds altogether. He may not be taken until the fifth or sixth round. I can’t recall seeing anyone’s stock plummet as much as his, and deservedly so. Not only did his play on the field fall off, but his actions off the field hurt his draft stock even more. He was suspended for having marijuana in his apartment prior to the Illinois game, and never won his starting job back after that point.

However, as disappointing as Evans was this past season, he was equally as dominant the year before. Just look at his numbers from his first two years, keeping in mind he did not play much as a freshman:

2006-'07: Evans starts 12 of the 25 games he appears in recording 66 tackles including 25 tackles-for-loss and 14 sacks. He force five fumbles and recovers a fumble.

If he can somehow regain that form, he could be a steal. His decision to come out after such a terrible junior year was quite perplexing. My guess he just didn’t like being at Penn State and wanted to move on. He could have made himself millions of dollars by sticking around one more year and playing like he did as a sophomore though. I am very intrigued to see how he pans out. Lots of potential, but also a lot of risks involved with this pick.

RICH OHRNBERGER – A great career at Penn State, he apparently does not project well to the NFL. He was an All-Big Ten guard in his last two seasons at Penn State, and will be sorely missed next year. He was well liked by the teammates. I’m hoping he can make an NFL roster and help an NFL team out on the scout team. It seems he lacks the size and speed required to play guard in the NFL though.

BUTLER

Deon Butler will leave Penn State as one of the school’s most productive wide receivers of all time. He has the most receptions in Penn State history. He is second all-time in career receiving yards, and third in receiving touchdowns. He has been the team’s top deep threat since his freshman season, and most recently, he impressed scouts with a scorching 4.38 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine last month.

His impressive career at Penn State already had Butler on many teams’ radars for the draft. His tremendous combine bumped him up a few notches on everyone’s draft boards. However, his lack of size will without a doubt limit his NFL potential. With the draft now only a month away, where can we expect Deon Butler to be taken in the draft? Here is my outlook on the former walk-on defensive back:

POSTIIVES: Tremendous deep-threat and incredible ability to get open deep. Good concentration once the ball is in the air. While he doesn’t always catch the ball with his hands, he seems to always end up making the catch anyway. Has pretty good moves in the open field to juke defenders. Despite being small, he’s pretty tough and does not go down without a fight – although many times I just wanted him to go down so he wouldn’t fumble. Durable player – I can’t remember him ever missing any time in all four years due to injury. Obviously very fast. I was not expecting a 4.38 in the 40, I never thought he was that fast, but he did beat his man deep very often, so it makes sense. He really impressed scouts at the East-West Shrine Game, where he was head-and-shoulders above every other receiver there. Great character, very level-headed. Former walk-on that works hard.

NEGATIVES: Size. He is probably around 5’9” or 5’10” and does not weigh much more than 170 lbs. Obviously, this is not ideal size for an NFL wide receiver. This is the number one thing that is holding him back. Also, like Williams, he is not really a natural hands catcher. He often uses his body to make catches, but, like I mentioned before, he still seems to make every catch. I can’t remember him ever dropping a pass. Still, you want a natural pass-catcher who can go out and snag the ball with his hands, which is not how Butler usually catches the ball. Also, not a very good blocker.

PROJECTION: His sub 4.4 40 time at the Combine will guarantee that he will be drafted next month. It probably even bumped him up from the seventh round to the fourth, fifth or sixth. He won’t go any earlier than that because of his size, but there will be a number of teams interested in taking a shot on him due to his speed and his impressive career at Penn State. The emergence of DeSean Jackson last year will help Butler’s case as NFL teams might not be as concerned about his size as they used to be. Butler will never be an elite NFL wide receiver, and most likely won’t ever be a regular starter. However, I think he can be very helpful to a team as a deep threat that can give you a big play every now and then – like Nate Washington for the Pittsburgh Steelers. I am excited to see if Butler can make a splash in the NFL.

NORWOOD

POSITIVES: Hands! Norwood may have the best hands in this draft. They are like suction cups. He catches everything thrown his way. If you haven't seen the video of his performance at the skills competition, you need to it becaue it was ridiculous.

Athleticism: Norwood is an incredible all-around athlete. He is a phenomenal basketball player that led State College High to the State Championship – he even made Penn State’s basketball team. He has tremendous body control and concentration. Despite a lack of size, he has a remarkable ability to go up and get the ball in traffic – see his catch against Michigan in the final drive of the 05 game.

While he lacks straight-line speed, he is very quick, and runs very precise routes. He does a great job of getting open. Also, like Butler, he has great character and is very modest and level-headed.

NEGATIVES: Size. Just like Butler, Norwood is undersized for an NFL wide receiver. He played his senior year at around 168 pounds. He was listed at about 180 at the Pro Day, but who knows if he can keep that up. Even if he can, that is still pretty small. He does not have much meat on him, he is very skinny. In addition to his small body frame, he looks very young as well. Believe it or not, this actually could hurt him. NFL personnel executives may have a hard time taking him seriously as an NFL prospect after meeting with him in person. Also, he lacks good straight-line speed. He is a 4.6 guy, which doesn’t really cut it in the NFL at his size. However, in my opinion, his quickness, shiftiness, and route-running can make up for his lack of speed.

PROJECTION: Norwood is very difficult for me to project. If you see the kid in person, you would immediately say that there is no way that he can make it in the NFL. He is just too small and skinny. However, if you watch him on a basketball court or on the football field, you can not help but be awed by his sheer athleticism. I am of the opinion that Norwood could benefit an NFL team if one would be willing to give him a shot. I’m just not so sure that one will. If he gets drafted at all, it will not be until the sixth or seventh rounds. If I had to guess, I would say that he will not get drafted, but will be given a shot in free agency.

If a team is willing to take a flyer on this kid, I honestly think his ability to get open and catch the ball could prove to be very helpful. I know most “possession receivers” are ideally 6’2” or taller, but Norwood’s reliable hands and route running could make him a solid possession receiver that a quarterback could turn to on third downs when a first down conversion is needed.

As a 2008 Penn State graduate, I can say that I have thoroughly enjoyed watching Deon Butler and Jordan Norwood continue to shock me and prove me wrong throughout their incredible careers. I look forward with high hope and great curiosity to see how they make out at the next level.

These numbers from NFL.com look more realistic for the Penn State Pro Day:

They have DWill in the high 4.4 low 4.5 range, and Maybin in the 4.6 range.

http://blogs.nfl.com/category/pro-days/

Here is an article about the Penn State Pro Day, which was held earlier this week. As I expected, the numbers for all the players were substantially better at the Pro Day than at the Combine, which seems to happen every year - and at every school. That is why I am always skeptical of Pro Day times. I prefer looking at the combine times, where all players from all schools compete at the same place in front of the same people. That way, you know you can compare one player's number to another players numbers without worrying if there are any discrepencies.

I just don't know how you can explain Aaron Maybin, Derrick Williams, and Maurice Evans all cutting off a few tenths of a second on their 40-times. When it comes to a 40-yard dash, a few tenths of a second is a huge difference. What on earth did Maurice Evans do in the last three weeks to cut his time down from 5.00+ to 4.7? It just doesn't make any sense.

Like I said, it happens every year, at every school: Players will run at the combine, and then have significantly lower times at the Pro Day, conveniently held at their own university. Maybe Holuba Hall just has a surface that is easier to run on, or as runners would often say, a "fast track."

For the sake of comparison, I remember Bryant Johnson ran a sub 4.4 at the PSU Pro Day. I think it was a 4.38 or something like that. Bryant Johnson was a great collegiate receiver, but he was never a burner, and does not run a sub 4.40. I believe Larry Johnson ran a 4.45 at the PSU Pro Day. When he gets to full speed, he may run a 4.45, but he taks a while to get going. I find it hard to believe his first 40 yards are 4.45.

With that being said, Williams, Maybin, and Evans all improved their draft stock tremendously with their performances. Maybin solidified himself as a top 15 overall pick. Williams and Evans cleared up some questions people may have had about them, and I expect them both get drafted. Williams should go somehwere around the fourth round. Evans will be a little later.

http://www.nittanynetwork.com/index.php/component/resource/article/283-nfr--beards,-smiles-plentiful-at-pro-day

There is no doubt that the trio of Derrick Williams, Deon Butler, and Jordan Norwood is the most prolific wide receiving corps in Penn State football history. All three were major contributors all four years of their career. They each arrived at Penn State in very different ways, but ended up having very successful careers and helped turn the program around.

D-Will came in as the number one overall recruit in the entire country, and shocked everyone by choosing to attend Penn State, a program that had been struggling at the time.

Deon Butler came to Penn State as a walk-on defensive back. He is now leaving Penn State as, statistically, the best wide receiver in school history.

Most people assumed that the only reason Jordan Norwood had a spot on the team was because his father was a coach. I remember working at the Lift for Life Event at Penn State during the summer of 2005, and wondering why the coaches were letting some random kid go through the drills while all the players were still competing. I found out later that the kid was actually Jordan Norwood, but if you had told me that at the time, I wouldn’t have even considered it possible that the person I was looking at was on the team. He looked like he was about 12 years old and looked like he weighed maybe 140 pounds. Then, when he first saw action on the field that fall, I just figured it was Joe being nice to Coach Norwood. But then he kept getting more and more playing time. And he kept making plays. The kid completely proved me wrong, and I’m happy he did.

I am a big fan of all three players and what they have done for Penn State. The funny thing is, all three of them are incredibly difficult to project at the next level. Nevertheless, here are my thoughts on each of them for the upcoming draft:

DERRICK WILLIAMS – It is my belief that Derrick Williams will benefit greatly by his well-known name and will be drafted much higher than he really should. Ever since he committed to Penn State as the number one recruit out of high school, he received tons of media attention. College football analysts and fans most likely assume Williams was the top playmaker for Penn State for the last four years, but Penn State fans that have seen every game know that this wasn’t exactly the case. While he was a great player and had a wonderful career, he never really did live up to the hype that surrounded him when he arrived.

POSITIVES: Overall great athlete. If you watch Derrick Williams play, there is no denying that he is a great all-around athlete. He obviously must have shown the coaches something everyday in practice, because offensively, the team always tried to design plays that would get the ball in his hands as often as possible.

He is very versatile, he can run with the ball, catch the ball, and even throw the ball. He played quarterback in high school and threw a few passes on trick plays while at Penn State. He is a very hard-worker and has great character. Probably his most underrated skill is blocking. Williams is a great blocking wide receiver, and this is something I noticed about him from day one as a freshman. He helped out the Penn State running game a lot with some key downfield blocks. He is more physical than you would expect. He was also a very clutch player throughout his career, coming up with key catches and kick/punt returns at important points in multiple games (Northwestern touchdown catch, Notre Dame punt return, etc.)

NEGATIVES: He is not a hands-catcher. He catches the ball with his body too often, and does not possess great hands, which is a big problem for an NFL receiver. Most people think he is a burner, but I’m not so sure how good his straight-line speed really is. His 40 times at the combine were horrendous, but he apparently had the flu and will run again at pro-day. Still, I expect about a mid 4.5 time out of Williams, which is not elite speed by any means.

Williams is widely regarded as a top return man. Unfortunately, in my opinion, he is not one. Every time he was back to return punts I held my breath. He never looked comfortable catching the ball, and I always expected him to fumble it. Somehow he rarely, if ever, did. However, I have a feeling his luck will run out at some point, and if he starts out as a punt return man in the NFL, it won’t be long before he loses the job. He has good moves and good instincts when it comes to finding a seam, but he simply goes down way too easily. He trips over his own feet too much, and seems to go down after minimal contact with defenders. If he was able to break through and stay on his feet, he could be a much better kick returner. This is also a problem when he gets into the open field on offense as well.

PROJECTION – I see Williams getting drafted somewhere around the fourth round. I hate to say it, but it would not surprise me if he ends up being a bust in the NFL. I’m sure a team will take him with the hope that he will be an immediate upgrade as a punt and kick returner. This will certainly help his draft stock. However, I don’t expect him to be a punt-returner for long in the NFL. He may or may not pan out as a kick returner – but will need to work in his balance. I am eager to see what he runs in his next attempt at the 40.

As a receiver, I don’t know if he has NFL caliber hands. I think he is best suited to be a slot receiver, and he had the most success at Penn State when he was used there. If a team uses him as a number 3 receiver to play the slot, I think he could be successful in that role. His work ethic, athleticism and physicality will help him for sure. A team hoping to use him as a playmaker out wide may end up being disappointed with his straight-line speed. Unfortunately, I have a feeling Williams will be drafted by a team expecting him to be something he is not. I believe he can be a solid contributor for a team, but he is not the superstar playmaker that the media has portrayed him as, and that many people perceive him to be.

As many of you know I consider myself to be somewhat of a draftnik. I spend a lot of time reading about the NFL Draft year-round. Now that we have this blog, I figured I might as well post some of my thoughts on the upcoming draft.

I’m not even close to a point where I could create my own mock draft with any success. I follow college football very closely, but there are simply way too many players and too many NFL teams for me to accurately project who would go where.

With that being said, what I can do is provide my thoughts on the few handful of players that I do know something about. Every year there are college players throughout the country that I think could become good sleepers in the draft, and occasionally, I am right. Similarly, there are always a few guys that the gurus go crazy about that I don’t see being that great at the next level (Jimmy Kennedy).

So, without further adieu, I will take a step closer to a life-long dream and begin blogging about the NFL Draft.

I might as well start with the players I know the most about: Penn Staters.

1. Aaron Maybin, DE

Maybin will most likely be a top 15 pick in next month’s draft. Does he deserve to go that high? I don’t think he should, but I can see why teams are intrigued by his athleticism.

POSITIVES: He is an incredibly gifted pass-rusher and is probably the quickest player off the line of scrimmage that I have ever seen. He consistently blew by offensive tackles with relative ease this past season, finishing the year with a Big Ten leading 12 sacks and 19 TFL.

Great character and work ethic. A great leader. A physical specimen, reminiscent of Jason Taylor, although he could benefit by putting more weight on.

NEGATIVES: Weight – He played this past season somewhere around 235 pounds – which is pretty light for a NFL defensive end. He got up to 249 for the combine, but can he keep that weight up? While he is a great pass rusher, he can get pushed around and will struggle against the run, making him somewhat of a one-dimensional player.

Inexperience – Maybin only started for one year at Penn State. He entered the season as a backup, and was thrust into a starting role after starter Maurice Evans was suspended and Jerome Hayes tore an ACL. So, essentially, in a few months time, Maybin went from being a backup role player to an All American and projected top 15 pick. He could have benefited from another year playing in college, but I can’t blame anyone for coming out early if you are going to be picked as high as he will. However, as a result of his lack of experience and size, I expect Maybin to struggle early in his NFL career. With that being said, I fully expect him to eventually have a successful NFL career.

PROJECTION: I expect to see Maybin get selected somewhere in the middle of the first round. A team drafting Aaron Maybin should not expect him to be a full-time starter right away. Ideally, they should work him in as a situational pass-rusher for his first season as he gets his feet wet in the NFL. Eventually, with his athleticism and work ethic, he will put on some weight and could be an every down player. It would not surprise me to see Maybin become an elite-level pass rusher in the NFL, but it may take some time. Don’t get me wrong, he will make plays in his first year, but any team drafting him with a top 15 pick should be doing so because of the long term investment, not because of an immediate impact.

ADDITIONAL NOTE: I have seen many people list Maybin as a possible 3-4 outside linebacker in the NFL, and I can’t figure out why. Maybin’s biggest strength is his incredibly quick first step off the line, which is unmatched by any other pass-rusher in this draft. I can’t tell you how many times I saw Maybin use this first step to blow by the opposing tackle before they could even get their feet set to block Maybin. So why would you want to take Maybin off the line and put him in space? All that does is give the offensive lineman some time to anticipate the rush and set his feet. Nothing I have seen from Maybin makes me believe he would be better playing in space, and he does not have any playing experience at linebacker. I hope for Maybin’s sake he does not go to a team that runs a 3-4 defensive scheme.

http://ydr.inyork.com/ci_11814492