Thursday, April 30, 2009

Post Draft Analysis

NFL DRAFT

I’ve covered the draft from a Penn State perspective. Now I will discuss the draft from a draftnik’s perspective.

As a 49er fan, I was very pleased with this draft. After getting Michael Crabtree with the tenth overall pick, San Fran could honestly have drafted Rudy with their next pick and I still would have been ecstatic. I said it a few weeks ago: I think Crabtree is the top overall prospect in this entire draft. I kept hearing he might fall to the 49ers at 10, but had a hard time believing it could actually happen. I can not wait to see what he does at the next level. He is the #1 wide receiver that the team has lacked since TO left.

After that, I liked the trade they made to pick up a #1 for 2010, although I also would have been happy seeing them take Everette Brown who was there for them in the second. Brown was projected as a first round pick, so I was surprised he lasted to the Niners in round two. Nevertheless, there must have been something that the scouts didn’t like about him, since they traded the pick.

I liked the picks of Glenn Coffee and Scott McKillop. The only pick I didn’t like was Nate Davis from Ball State. I watched him this year and was not impressed. I know he was great in college, but he doesn’t look like an NFL type QB to me. I would have rather them taken Graham Harrell or Drew Willy, but time will tell.

Okay, I realize nobody else cares about the 49ers, so I will just give my opinion on some of the biggest picks of the draft. I will start by listing what I thought were the best value picks in the draft:

-Chris Wells at 31 is an absolute steal. He was the best back in the draft in my opinion, and for him to fall that far is incredible. He’s my early pick to win Rookie of the Year next year for Arizona.

-Rashad Johnson at the end of the third to Arizona was another steal. I listed him in an earlier post as one of my favorite players in this draft because he was such a playmaker and a leader for Alabama. I think he will be a starting safety in the NFL.

-Darius Butler to New England in the second. The debate is between Butler, Vontae Davis and Malcolm Jenkins for who the top corner in the draft was. The other two went in the first, so Butler was the best value pick of the three.

-Orakpo falling to 13 was surprising. He could have just as easily gone in the top 5. He is a great player, and the Redskins wisely pounced on him when he was still on the board at 13. I have no idea how Denver passed on him to take a running back.

-Duke Robinson out of Oklahoma had a great college career. Somehow he fell all the way to the fifth (163). The Panthers will be happy with this pick. He has experience at both guard and tackle. I think he will be a successful pro.

-Tackle Thomas Morstead went with the very next pick after Robinson. He was rated highly on many people’s boards, including draft guru Gil Brandt. That’s good enough for me. He was on the board for too long.

-AQ Shipley: He should have been picked earlier than the seventh round. He will have a long career in the NFL.

WORST PICKS:

-Darrius Heyward-Bey at number 8 to Oakland. I’m sure you’ve already heard all about this crazy pick, but honestly, this was just dumb. I kept hearing that the Raiders love speed, and that they may even take Maclin or Heyward-Bey at #8 over Crabtree, but I refused to believe these rumors until I actually saw it happen. Al Davis is out of his mind. First, Crabtree is without a doubt the best wide receiver in this draft. Second, how can you take a player in the top 10 based solely on his impressive size-speed ratio? That’s exactly what they did. His production at Maryland was not incredibly impressive. It’s foolish to pick someone that high just because the guy is 210 lbs. and runs a 4.3. Those measurables only go so far. You need to get a proven consistent playmaker at that spot, not somebody that actually had games last year where he failed to record a single reception.

-Knowshon Moreno to the Broncos at 12. I’m not saying he’s not a great running back, because I think he is. But this pick doesn’t make sense to me for the Broncos. A lot of people liked this pick, but I just don’t understand it, when they have so many needs on defense. Brian Orakpo was there. He would have been a perfect fit, and they should have been happy to have him fall that far. Most importantly, why did they go out and sign all of those free agent running backs this off-season? I liked what they did this off-season going out and getting Buckhaulter, Arrington and Lamont Jordan, who I think are all solid backs. Running back, in my opinion was not a big need for Denver, especially since you can get good value at running back in the later rounds. They had much larger needs they could have filled with this pick, and taking Moreno doesn’t make sense to me. A lot of people liked this pick, but I just don’t agree. I liked their next pick taking Robert Ayers later in the first, though.

-Josh Freeman: I just don’t see it. I think he’s overrated. He’s a good athlete, but I don’t see him being successful in the NFL. His decision making is lacking and his mechanics are far from where they need to be. I realize it may be a large drop off to the next group of quarterbacks after him, but that doesn’t make Freeman a first round pick. He is head and shoulders below Sanchez and Stafford. I don’t think Freeman will be an NFL starter.

More to come including which teams I thought had the best drafts.

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