The Penn State Football Show

Bowl games are always tough to predict. Neither team has played in a month. Often one of the teams is disappointed with their season and in turn the bowl game they are in, and as a result, a win in some crappy bowl doesn't make much difference to them because it doesn't save their season. While the other team may be very pleased with the bowl game they are in, and look at it is an opportunity to cap off a tremendous year with a big win. Depending on the situation, you don't always get equal efforts out of both teams. Additionally, out of all of these bowl games, only one of them is for the national championship. So what, exactly, are all the other teams playing for? All of these factors contribute to making college bowl games so unpredictable, that professional gamblers avoid them like the plague. You just have no clue what you're going to get out of the two teams playing.

This particular bowl game, has a few extra factors thrown into the mix that make it a whole lot more confusing.

UF

1. Florida's Head Coach Urban Meyer is retiring and this bowl game will be his last. Does this mean he will work extra hard to go out with a victory, or does it mean he's already thinking about his retirement and hasn't really been preparing for this game as he usually would? Does this mean the players will work extra hard to make sure to send their coach out with a win? Or are they too disappointed/distracted to focus on this game.

2. Florida's Offensive Coordinator is leaving next year to take over as the Head Coach at Temple. How focused on this game can he be? Is he already looking ahead to his next gig at Temple? It's never to early to start recruiting... How much effort is he putting into this game?

3. Florida's starting QB is rumored to be considering transferring schools for next year. Again, how will that affect his focus/preparation for this game?


PSU

1. Rumors have been flying around about Coach Paterno's health declining and the possibility that this is his last game. Every indication from Paterno insists none of this is true and he will be back next year. If the rumors are true, the repurcussions on this game are obvious... The heach coach hasn't been around to coach the team, the players/assistant coaches may be distracted/worried about Paterno or wondering who will be taking over, etc. But even if it's not true, you have to wonder how much of this stuff is heard and believed by the players, and how distracted they are.

2. Tom Bradley interviewed for the Temple job and most reports indicate he would have brought Vanderlinden and McQueary with him there. That means three of the coaches were very close to leaving PSU. If they thought such a big life change was imminent, that had to have taken away from their focus and preparation for this game.


Anyway, as you can see, there are a lot going on behind the scenes leadinig up to this game. HBO could have done a 24/7 series for this specific bowl game and would have had plenty to talk about.

After giving you my list of reasons why this game is impossible to predict, I will go ahead and make my prediction:

In recent bowl games, Penn State has had success pulling out surprise victories in bowls I don't expect them to win against SEC teams I felt were superior (Tennessee in 2006 and LSU last year). So it's possible they could do the same against Florida this year. However, I think Urban Meyer is a great coach that is well liked by most of his players and assistant coaches, and I think, despite all of the potential distractions, the entire team is determined to send Meyer out with a win. As a result, I see Florida winning this game in a dominant fashion.

It is now post-Christmas and some of the coaching names that were being tossed around are now moot. I must first address the absolute shenanigans surrounding this whole coaching shake up. WTF? How in the world does Sue Paterno have to justify knowing her husband is not in the hospital? Is this what media in this country has become? A chain e-mail started by some mook with a subscription to Blue-White Illustrated? I mean good gravy. I actually lost it on my Dad pretty hard for spreading these rumors around at Christmas dinner, not because I knew they were false or anything but I automatically knew the source of them was totally bogus. I blame ESPN for coining the phrase "A source close to the program." Typing those words or saying them during an official broadcast should be punishable by death henceforth. Also let me say that I've been hearing for close to 15 years now that "This will definitely be Joe's last season/game." Also now punishable by death.

I not only have a Christmasy name, but I've got a Christmasy list of coaches as well. When I heard the rumors of Tony Dungy, I was very surprised. He has ties to the Big Ten having played at Minnesota, but why Penn State? Why college football? It doesn't really sound accurate and I for one am not buying into it just yet. If it is true, I think that he would be a good coach, and he's a big name that will bring in recruits and is also African-American, which could be a tie-breaker for some recruits. Cowher is the other name thrown out there, but I just don't know if these guys that coached in the NFL would want to coach college, and would they be any good? The leagues are pretty different animals and some coaches just have a knack for one. Pete Carroll for example is a college coach. He has that demeanor...he can connect with kids, but probably isn't stoic enough to handle grown men. How would Cowher react to some of the nonsense that goes on with college kids? I think that he could be great, but might be a little too NFL for the NCAA.

As for Ferentz, I think he is a good coach as well, but he's never been great. He has pulled in some great recuiting classes in a state where there isn't much going on, but his teams always end up with good to pretty good years. They have always had our number, and I think that this sways a lot of our opinions of him. If you were a Northwestern fan and were asked about hiring Ferentz, you might respond with a laugh and reply, "Nah, I'm all set".

Bradley is a great guy and he's been so loyal to the team, but I don't know what benefit there is in making him head coach. He basically is the head coach right now, and keeping him would essentially keep things the way they are. A coaching change is something that could really jumpstart recruiting for a couple years before it settles back down to a normal level. Bradley just wouldn't get this sort of response.

So now...my list

1. Chris Petersen - Boise State. As much as I personally hate Boise State, this guy is good at what he does. He has only lost 5 games in 5 years. He is one of the most creative offensive minds in college football and has been able to consistently coach up quarterbacks. He has a lot of ties to California, where he was born and played, and has been able to bring in great players to a middle of nowhere school. He has performed well in big games, most notably against Oklahoma in 2007, and he is the kind of big change that I think Penn State is looking for. Surprisingly his defenses have played well, but I think that keeping Larry Johnson around as DC might be a good option. I believe that Bradley will be the next head coach at Temple. Other advantages are that he is relatively young, and PSU likely wouldn't have to shell out as much money compared to a Cowher or Dungy (right now Petersen makes ~800k a year).

2. Al Golden - Miami (formerly Temple). Yes, I know...he just took a job this month at UMiami, but Penn State IS this guy's dream job. It's always nice to get someone that wants to be where they are, and Al has made it no secret that he ultimately wants to one day be the HC at PSU. The trouble here lies in the contract he just signed for the Hurricanes, and if the Outback Bowl is in fact the last game for Joe Paterno, then it will be nigh impossible to get him. On the other hand, if Joe coaches one more year, Golden can coach a year at Miami, we can get an idea of how he does with a BCS program, and he may be able to get out of his contract with a buyout in 2012.

3. Pat Fitzgerald - Northwestern. Pete, I agree with you here. This guys is tough as nails, and was an outstanding linebacker in college and would have no trouble bringing in the best LB's in the country to play for LBU. Getting him away from N'Western would be tough, especially in conference, but the facilities and support for Northwestern just don't measure up with Penn State and he may be tempted to coach a National Championship caliber team.

4. Paul Chryst - Wisconsin (OC/QB). Like Fitzgerald, Chryst is serving at his alma mater, but unlike Fitzgerald, he has left his alma mater before. Chryst was the tight ends coach at Wisconsin before leaving for Oregon State to be their offensive coordinator. He later returned to Wisconsin as their offensive coordinator. What this tells me is that he may not be afraid to leave UW for a promotion. He has continually put together a powerful offense that I find myself dreaming about at night. Enormous offensive linemen, bruising running backs, great tight ends, and smart quarterbacks. The Wisconsin offense to me is the definition of Big Ten football, and even though his style and my #1 Chris Petersen are completely different, I would be glad to take either. Great offensive minds that are well connected and could bring in talent that PSU has had trouble getting (nation-wide recruiting, and offensive linemen).

This is something that we just aren't used to, but the ride will certainly be exciting. Regardless, I think that Penn State will get a quality coach. In the meantime, let's find a new basketball coach!

Merry Christmas! Or will it be a Merry Chrystmas????

With Christmas fast approaching, and Penn State coaching rumors flying around like crazy, I figured this would be a good time to post my Penn State Coaching Wishlist to the blog.

Although it's been the hottest topic of discussion surrounding Penn State Football for probably the past 15 years, the issue of Joe's successor has not really been touched on a whole lot on this blog. Every year you get someone saying "You heard it here first, this bowl game will be Joe's last game." But every year he returns the following season. This year has been no different. In fact, within the last 45 minutes, I've heard from two different people that this is it for Joe, and that Tony Dungy is the top candidate to take over. I'm at the point now where I take any rumors I hear with a grain of salt. I don't believe anybody has any real inside information and we won't know what's going on until it actually goes on.

So by making this post, I'm not at all suggesting I think this will be Joe's last game. I'm simply acknowledging that it very well could be, and if it is, these are my personal top four candidates I would like to see considered for the job:

1. Bill Cowher - Having a big-name guy like Cowher would do wonders for recruiting and would draw a ton of national attention to the program. His physical style of coaching fits perfectly in the Big Ten. He's a Pittsburgh guy so it fits, as long as he has a desire to get into collegiate coaching.

2. Kirk Ferentz - He's on my short list of best coaches in the game right now, but what makes him so appealing is that he does it with more class than most of the other guys on that list. His coaching style is very similar to Joe's, with a focus on runninig the football and playing strong defense. Plus he's also a Pittsburgh guy, so it would be a good fit for him, if he's willing to leave Iowa.

3. Pat Fitzgerald - One of the better young, up and coming coaches in the game. He's had a lot of success so far at Northwestern, and could be much more successful with better talent. He's a Big Ten guy with a lot of respect for Joe and Penn State, so he might be interested in the job, as long as he's willing to leave his alma mater. Being a younger guy, I think he'd do well with recruiting also.

4. Tom Bradley - First of all, there is no denying he's been a great defensive coordinator for Penn State. And I like the idea of a defensive minded head coach. He's paid his dues, he's been loyal to the program, and I think he deserves a shot. I know he doesn't have head coaching experience, but I definitely think he has what it takes to be a great head coach. I think the players all like and respect him, and he would do a great job. The only thing going against him is that they may want to go outside the program to bring some much needed change, and sticking with Bradley would probably result in more of the same stuff we've been seeing.

What does your wish-list look like?

The Penn State Michigan State game always seems to be a fun one to watch. It's usually high scoring with a lot of excitement, and I expect today's game to be no different. I see both teams putting up 25+ points, and I'll take Penn State in a close one.

Also, I know there was a lot of news going around about Joe returning next year. People need to realize the context in which that came out. It was not a prepared announcement or anything along those lines. It was just a casual statement at his weekly press release. They asked him if this was going to be his last game at Beaver Stadium, and he said no because he'd be back next year. That question gets asked all the time, and he always responds by saying he has no plans on retiring any time soon. What else is he going to say? Of course he's going to say he plans on being back next year. He's not going to announce his retirement at his weekly press conference before the michigan state game. I'm not saying to completely disregard it, but the media made way too much of something I don't think they should have.

I support Joe Paterno, but it's clear his health is not what it used to be. I think it's time. But as we all know, it only matters what he thinks. That remains to be seen, but I don't think we can completely ignore the possibility that this is Joe's last game at Beaver Stadium.

The kindergarten art project that is the Land Grant Trophy is at stake for the last time on Saturday as Penn State looks to crush any hope for Michigan State to get to their first BCS bowl game. Since joining the Big Ten, Penn State has never lost to Michigan State at home, but this may be the finest MSU team since the league added its eleventh team. A balanced offense with a steady quarterback, superb receivers, and an array of talented running backs will face a banged up Penn State defense. Penn State looked pretty unimpressive for much of the game against Indiana, but showed some very bright spots. Clearly McGloin is the guy for this game and the bowl game. He has really come out of nowhere after laying an egg in the Blue White game (he really played like dog shit) and has not only made big plays with his arm, but also recognized blitzes and generally made good decisions. This is why Bolden will need another 8 or so months before he starts a football game. Take nothing away from Robert Bolden, but for someone coming out of a wing-T high school offense (i.e. Groton School) and then practicing for a couple months with PSU, it's hard to imagine that he would be able to do the most complex aspects of the job.

It was good to see Silas Redd penalized minimally for taking a leak in public. I still don't know how you get caught (dumpster behind Taco Bell, bushes outside of Schreyer's...take notes) but come on, we've all done it. Plus he's really good at football. I expect Redd to be a huge factor in this game. Royster took on a bigger role his freshman year as the season went on (even though Rodney Kinlaw was fantastic) and it looks like Redd will do the same.

MSU is a very pro-style team. Nothing too fancy, but they are very effective. Penn State is going to need to tackle well and cover well in the secondary to have a shot at this upset. With a win, Penn State will end the season at 8-4 and head to a decent bowl game likely ranked in the top 25...not too bad. This game goes a long way in determining what kind of team will be playing in the bowl game and in 2011. I long predicted that 2011 would be Penn State's National Championship contending team and I believe they can still do that.

So time out...Boise State just lost, no big deal(suckaaaaaaas!). I think Kellen Moore looks like a beaver. Also, the Miami Heat kind of aren't that good and no one goes to their games. Awesome!

Back to football...I'm tired, it's Thanksgiving...it's just tough knowing that very few students are going to be at tomorrow's game, and it's a HUGE game! A very winnable game against the 10th ranked team! Let's go! I'm going to bed! I have to wake up early and take a train into Philly to watch this guy! Boise State lost! HAHAHAHA! Anyway, Michigan State let's us open up a lead...they come back in the 4th quarter, but finally the cardiac Spartans don't make it back all the way and in typical fashion, completely ruin what could have been a great season. They'll probably lose their bowl game by 30 points too. You can beat us in basketball, but this one is ours.

Finally we saw what this team is capable of. It took a little while, and Drew Merritts almost killed a guy. Matt McGloin took the team 91 yards in 50 seconds to score a touchdown and undoubtedly save the lives of some fans that probably need to catch up on their PSFB show before opening their mouths and imparting the wisdom of a drunk pigeon. The offense has been potent, not necessarily because of the quarterback play, but the playcalling. McGloin has more poise, he makes good decisions and has made some damn good throws, but I agree with Pete...Bolden is the future. But we aren't there yet. Playaction on first down is so money every time. Silas Redd is a complete stud, and the receivers have stepped up to make some big plays. And how about Joe Suhey!? What a guy.

The team is playing with fire. They are flying to the ball. Michael Mauti makes me tingle inside, and Evan Royster is showing some pizazz. The team has gelled. It is so much fun to watch McGloin, and the kid truly loves being out there and competing. It makes you realize that a lot of these guys play the game for the right reason...to get a free education and to play a sport they love.

Now can McGloin lead PSU to victories over Michigan AND Ohio State? Why not? PSU has all kinds of momentum and they have absolutely nothing to lose. I believe that they are 18 point underdogs or something completely crazy. The thing is that Ohio State is going to play conservatively and if Penn State can contain Pryor, they should be able to keep the score low. They have some great athletes on defense and there has been a marked improvement lately (Malcolm Willis I love you). I really see this being a great game, but Ohio State's defensive line will give us some problems. The O-line has done a great job all year in pass protection, but it will be imperative to get some lanes for Royster and Redd. As long as McGloin can stay away from throwing pop-ups when he has about to get sacked or hurried, I think PSU can get some things done.

Last year this game was tough to watch. I broke my phone that day, and put a few holes in the wall of my apartment. Here's to wishing that happens to some Ohio State fan later today.

On a side note I will be attending my first Groton School football game this afternoon as they take on rival St. Mark's for the season finale. A big day of football and the Sunday night matchup is ok too. Fight on, on, on