The Penn State Football Show

I really don’t know what to expect in this game. There are so many factors to take into consideration when trying to predict the outcome. Here are some of them:

1. There is no denying that Iowa has had Penn State’s number recently. Everyone remembers the crushing defeat at Iowa last year on the last second field goal, preventing Penn State from playing for the National Championship. But not everyone realizes that Iowa has actually won 6 out of the last 7 matchups between these two. That’s a pretty impressive run. If they make it 7 out 8 this weekend, they will become the new Michigan Wolverines to Penn State fans.

It’s pretty surprising that they’ve had that kind of success against Penn State. Iowa is typically a second tier Big Ten team, behind the likes of OSU, Michigan, Penn State and Wisconsin. They’ve had some great teams in the past 10 years, but even in the years when they are somewhat down, they seem to always play their best game against Penn State. I can’t tell you why it is, maybe Ferentz has JoePa’s number, but Iowa always outperforms their expectations against the Lions.

2. Playing at Beaver Stadium at night is a huge advantage for Penn State. The atmosphere will be electric at this game, especially after what happened last year. The students have sat through three “pre-season” games and have been waiting for this one for a long time. It is very difficult to come in to Beaver Stadium at night and come away with a victory. However, if there is a Big Ten team that I could see being unfazed by the crowd, it’s Iowa. They are very well coached every year, and Stanzi is an experience quarterback that doesn’t often get rattled. It should also be pointed out that in the series between these two teams historically, the visiting team has actually been more successful than the home team, winning 13 out of the 21 games.

3. Penn State has had this game circled on the calendar since last year. Everything that I said about the fans being excited for this game applies twice as much for the players. The Hawkeyes’ one-point victory was the only thing that kept Penn State out of the national championship game. No matter what Paterno says to the media, the players want revenge. And the players are no different from the fans: They have a hard time getting excited to play cream-puffs like Temple and Akron. This is the game they have been waiting for. I would not be surprised to see them come out firing on all cylinders and blow this game open early, similar to the Oregon State game last year.

4. Penn State has not looked good in any of their games yet this season. Perhaps you can chalk this up to the point I just made: The players were not up for the game and played down to the competition. But that should never happen on a well coached team. When you play a sport where you have just one game a week, there is no excuse to have a game where you do not come ready to play. The defense has played well. The secondary remains untested, the defensive line should have gotten a few more sacks, and the defense should have forced more turnovers. But, as a whole, the defense has played well.

The problem lies with the offense. The offense has not been able to get into a rhythm in any of the games yet, which is troubling. Too many drives have ended in punts instead of points. Not enough red zone opportunities have resulted in touchdowns. The running game was completely non-existent until the last game, when it finally started to come along. The offensive line has played poorly, but again, looked a little better last game. Basically, the offense has not shown me anything that makes me think they will succeed against Iowa’s defense. They have many things they must improve on if they want to win this game. Clark will need to run in this game. If they play the way they have so far this year, they will lose. I do have faith that they can still put it all together. Back in 05, the offense took a few games before they started to click. They looked similarly sloppy in the first couple games, and we all remember what happened after that.

5. Iowa has not been particularly impressive either. They opened the season with a near disaster against Northern Iowa, needing to block two field goals at the end of the game to preserve the victory. They bounced back with two good wins over Iowa State and Arizona, so they seem to be on the right track. But nobody seems to know how good this team is. Why, exactly, is GameDay coming to Happy Valley for this one anyway? Miami and VT seems like a better matchup to me.
This game is getting a lot of hype for a game featuring a top 5 team facing an unranked opponent. I guess it’s because they know it is more than that. They know that Penn State has struggled against Iowa in the past and needs to get that monkey of their backs. Iowa came into the season ranked #22, so we know they have talent. I think we will learn a lot about both of these teams on Saturday night. Which is a good thing, because I’m not sure I know anything about either of them right now.

6. Penn State has major injury concerns heading into this game. The Lions’ two best defensive players are hurt in Sean Lee and Navarro Bowman. If I had to guess, I think Bowman will play in this one, but it sounds like Lee won’t be able to go, which hurts tremendously. Yes, PSU has great depth at linebacker, but Lee is the unquestioned leader and the best player on this team. He is irreplaceable. His absence will be noticed if he’s unable to play. Hopefully Bowman is close to 100%. If Lee is out and Bowman is not at full strength, Iowa could have a lot of success running the ball. If both players were at full strength, I think the Hawkeyes would have a very difficult time scoring points.

One the offensive side of the ball, Graham Zug got knocked around a little bit last game, but should be good to go. In my opinion, that’s huge. Zug is clearly Clark’s favorite and most reliable target. The offense lacks rhythm, but Clark and Zug seem to have good chemistry. If Zug weren’t able to go, I’d be worried about the offense’s ability to consistently move the chains – which is exactly what Zug is used for.

7. Analysis: I think this game could go one of two ways. It will either be a low scoring, close game, which would favor Iowa, or Penn State will come out on fire and prove they are the superior team and blow out the Hawkeyes. Neither of these outcomes would surprise me. The reason I say the first option favors Iowa is simply because they have been able to win all of the close games in recent years. I also don’t have much confidence in Penn State’s kicking game just yet.

I don’t think there is any way Iowa can blow out Penn State. They just don’t have the offensive firepower. They always have a great offensive line, a solid running back and a strong defense. Having an experience QB in Stanzi will also help. As I said before, they are always well coached and seem to play their best against the Lions. But I do think Penn State has more talent, and if they are able to put everything together, they are capable of a rout similar to the Oregon State game last year.

I can’t decide which scenario I think is more likely to occur, so I will go with the Penn State blowout as my official prediction so I don’t get yelled at. By the way, did anyone notice I predicted the exact score of the Temple game?

Keys to the game:

Keep the chains moving. PSU will need to convert on third downs. This means Clark will need to run. On defense, if Penn State can stuff the running game, Iowa will be in trouble.

Special Teams: A big return could really spark Penn State like the Illinois game last year. However, they must stop giving up big returns.

Force turnovers: If they can force Iowa into 3rd and long situations, they can definitely force some interceptions off of Stanzi. Astornio hasn’t really had much opportunity to have his name called this year, but I see him having a big game Saturday.

Open up the playbook: Most people believe that PSU has not revealed a lot of their playbook. Now is the time. They have plenty of playmakers they can utilize like Curtis Drake, Devon Smith, and Chaz Powell. Lets draw up some reverses and trick plays, and take a few deep shots to Moye as well.