Wednesday, October 7, 2009

For What It's Worth

In light of PSU's recent verbal commitment by blue-chip linebacker Khairi Fortt to help further strengthen one of Joe Paterno's most successful recruiting classes of recent history, I began asking myself one question...what does all this hype over recruiting really mean and, moreover, what can I expect to see on the field in the upcoming years? So, being the credible and complete journalist that I pretend to be on this website, I put on my white lab coat, rolled up my sleeves (or rather pant legs!) and began doing some research.

Currently, there are two major scouting sources, Rivals and ESPN, Rivals being the most in-depth. Both of which scout, analyze, grade, and rank high school football players around the country and monitor their official visits and interest levels in respective schools/programs leading up to National Signing Day. (There are actually people who get paid full-time salaries to do this kind of stuff!) Rivals grades players with stars, 5 being the highest, while ESPN grades players with a numerical value, 100 being the highest. For example, Derrick Williams was a 5 star Rivals player whereas Terrelle Pryor was graded as a 93 on ESPN, both of whom were the #1 player in their class. You get the idea...

To date, PSU has 19 players verbally committed for the 2010 season, 14 four-star recruits (seven ESPN 150), 4 three-star recruits and one player who does not have a grade/ranking (ironically that player is Jordan Norwood's brother). But will this transform into wins and success on the field over the next four years??? Not so fast my friend! The interesting part comes when you sift through the recruiting database from the last several years to see how players have progressed.

Lets start with the PSU class of 2007. Current starters Derek Moye (three-star), Stephfon Green (two-star), Drew Astorino (two-star), and Joe Suhey (two-star) were given an ESPN grade of 40, an arbitrary number given to players who are not even on the radar and no information about these players is available from the ESPN scouts. Who was the top recruit in 2007 you ask? J.B. Walton, an ESPN 150 offensive guard who is no longer with the program because of academic issues.

In 2006, PSU's top recruit was AJ Wallace, a five-star recruit who has had his problems with truancy and tackling. Conversely, Evan Royster, who is arguably one of the top running backs in the country, was listed as a three-star player and the 105th running back of his class. Furthermore, the top names of the 2006 PSU class read like this...Maurice Evans, Chris Bell, Pat Devlin, and Bani Gbadyu, all in the ESPN 150. Evans, Bell, and Devlin are no longer with the program and Gbadyu is a player who is still struggling to find an identity. PS...Ollie Ogbu was on this list as another 40 grade. And lets not forget maybe the biggest bust in recent PSU history, Anthony Morelli, a five-star recruit who was ranked higher than Chad Henne on the list of QB's coming out of high school in 2004.

So, while it is great that we are landing these players, lets not get too excited and start making future predictions like some sportswriters are beginning to do. The reason coaches get paid the money they do is to attempt to develop these players and get them to reach their full potential. Some pan out, some don't. Sometimes the scouts are right and sometimes they are wrong, that's what's great about sports...anything can happen if you work hard. Lets try to take this, truly, for what it's really worth and continue focusing on 2009.

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