The Penn State Football Show

Pete I understand where you are coming from and last year's victory over Michigan certainly didn't feel that great, just as the win over Notre Dame in 2007 didn't feel like it should have. But that is because both of those teams sucked when we beat them. They weren't hard fought meaningful wins. Tomorrow will be. Yes Tate Forcier is very talented, but everyone is hyping this kid up quite a bit based on some spectacular plays that he has made. What they don't take note of are his mistakes. In every meaningful game that they have played thus far, he's thrown a pick (those are games against ND, MSU, Indiana, and Iowa). Sure he led some nice drives and certainly has the talent to be great at times, but a real telling sign was against Iowa where he threw a pick, fumbled, and on several occasions tried to scramble on third down instead of trying to get it through the air. He is a freshman, and granted so was Ryan Mallett, but a few things are different.

Penn State has lost 3 games in the last 2 years. Two against Iowa where the losses were because of poor execution, turnovers, and settling for field goals. The other was against USC where PSU was simply overmatched. Over these two years Penn State's coaches have done a great job of gameplanning. They have handled mobile quarterbacks remarkably well (Juice, Pryor), and even the gameplan this year against Iowa was pretty agressive....they just lost the game because of turnovers. Michigan's defense is pretty lousy outside of big #55, but he alone won't be able to control the most balanced offensive team Michigan has faced.

Thus far Michigan has faced 4 quality opponents who are all averaging around 120-130 yards a game on the ground. All of those teams rushed over their average against Michigan. Penn State is averaging close to 190 yards a game. I expect them to maintain that average this week. A lot of people expect the Wolverines to put 8 men in the box to slow down the rushing attack, but this Penn State team has seen this all season and has improved, plus Michigan's defensive backs have been ineffective in both tackling and coverage. I personally feel that this Penn State team is flying under the radar and has great potential.

On the defensive side of the ball, Penn State is improving every week. I can't see Michigan scoring more than 21 points in this game. The PSU defensive backs have really proven themselves, and last week we finally saw Bradley use some aggressive play by the corners. They were up on the line harassing Decker, and he was held in check all game. A key for Penn State will be getting pressure on the QB without blitzing. If they can do that, they can essentially take away the passing game much like what Iowa did. This will be easier said than done because Michigan does get their starting center back from an injured foot, but Odrick and Ogbu are a force to be reckoned with. Sean Lee is expected to be in on roughly 30-35 plays, but I can assure you that if this is a close one and he feels good, he'll be out there a lot more. This defense hasn't played a great offense yet, but they are more physical than last year, and other than at DE they are better at every position.

Stephfon Green will not be making the trip which should give us all a look at Beachum that we have been waiting patiently for although I suspect Royster will get a heavier load. BB3 lowers his shoulder and lays the boom on anyone he sees and Michigan's very average linebacking core could receive some punishment. What Michigan has going for them is that they are risky, and have the chance to put up some big plays. They are also at home and have a dynamic defensive end and a filthy punter. What about Penn State you ask? They are the better team. They can dominate on the offensive side of the ball, their defense is stacked, athletic, fast, and punishing. If they can limit their mistakes and not hurt themselves I see them cruising to a win. A key will be to take it to Michigan early and get the crowd out of it a bit, and put pressure on Forcier and the offense. When he gets a little desperate he forces things and Penn State needs to be ready to grab some INT's. I'm sick of people being mystified and afraid of Michigan...like Paterno said, this stadium is nothing special, Michigan fans are weak-sauce, and Rich-Rod is not fit to be a BIG10 coach. I have been very encouraged with the coaching this year and last, and with the way this team has responded after the Iowa game. They have done nothing but get better, faster, smarter, sexier, everything. AJ Wallace is getting A's, Josh Hull's moustache looks fuller and more vibrant, and Sean Lee is so jacked that he committed the first penalty of his life last week when he threw a trident threw some dude's chest. I am jacked up for this game, and I know Penn State is too. OHHH BABY!