The Penn State Football Show

The title of this post might lead you to believe that I'm set to extol the virtues of Lee, Clark, and the rest of the Penn State 4th and 5th year degree seekers. You would be wrong, because I'm referring to myself. After years of pent up demand, administrators have relented and allowed my expertise the opportunity to breathe. You're welcome, America.

It's Michigan week, and there is consternation abound regarding the Nittany's ability to handle what has become the bi-annual death march to Ann Arbor. History suggests that some of this is warranted, however, it's worth examining the basic facts of the matter a hand. Consider:

Michigan is 5-2 overall with a 1-2 record in the Big Ten. They share a common defeat with Penn State in the form of the unbeaten Hawkeyes, as well as an overtime loss at Michigan State. The latter is somewhat forgivable on its face being a road game, in conference, and a natural rivalry, but the number that should stick out is 20. As in the number of points scored against the Spartans in more than 4 quarters.

Because, you see, the reason that Michigan is supposedly good is the offensive side of the ball. Their defensive production of 363 yards/game allowed is middle of the pack in the NCAA and doesn't scare anyone. The offensive numbers are impressive though. 37 points/game is good for ninth in the nation. The rushing stats for Rich Rod's offense (of which I am actually a huge fan) come in at at gaudy 235 yards/game, good for 8th in the country. No doubt, those digits will get your attention.

But why not take a closer look at UM's victories? 31 points vs Western Michigan, 38 vs Notre Dame, 45 vs Eastern Michigan, 36 vs Indiana, and 63 vs Delaware State last week. Great numbers, sure, but not a worthy foe in the bunch. And before anyone protests, Notre Dame blows, and it shall not be discussed further. The Wolverines put up a valiant fight on the road at unbeaten Iowa, scoring 28 points, but they gave up 30 so it doesn't matter. In the end, Michigan has played about as well as can be expected, and hasn't really beaten anyone.

Of course, in large part, the same can be said about Penn State. The offensive numbers are more than respectable. 433 yards/game is good for top 20 in the land. The scoring average of 29.6/game is also in the upper echelon and 2nd in the Big Ten behind only Michigan. But the hallmark of Linebacker U's 2009 campaign is defense, as the numbers show. Coming off of a shutout of Minnesota, the PSU defense is giving up 8.7 points/game, tied with Florida for tops in the country. Their 239 yards allowed/game is 5th in the NCAA, and importantly as it relates to Michigan, the rush defense is allowing a paltry 75.4 yards/game. That is good for 6th in Division 1.

But by whom have these stout defensive numbers come at the expense? The answers are of course Akron, Syracuse, Temple, Eastern Illinois, Minnesota, Illinois, and Iowa. Despite the loss to Iowa, the defense indeed held up its end of the bargain against an unbeaten team. It is worth noting, however, the non conference schedule was collectively non-threatening. So is the defense any good? Unlike the Michigan offense with great numbers, I contend the Penn State defense is every bit the unit the numbers dictate.

There was big time worry about replacing an entire secondary, but Lynn and Morris have forced their way on the field as freshman, and that says a lot from a Joe Paterno coached team. Astorino has been solid and even AJ Wallace's corpse has risen from the dead to be serviceable and even help preserve the shutout last week. The players in the box have been exemplary, and much has already been accomplished without sizable contributions from All American Sean Lee. Thankfully, #45 seems to be rounding back into shape for the heart of Big Ten play. Bowman rested an ankle against two high school caliber teams and has come back fresh and terrifying owning every piece of green between the sidelines. Josh Hull has been a good solider, endured criticism, and is having a nice season around the ball. Games are won and lost in the trenches and here Penn State has excelled. Odrick might be a dick, but he has few peers in the college game. The best name in college football, Ollie Ogbu, continues to impress and Jack Crawford regularly exhibits freakish athleticism. Jerome Hayes has come back time and time again and is contributing.

And herein lies the key to Penn State/Michigan. UM has run up big numbers on below average competition, rarely being challenged at the line. They can only run what plays a defense will allow them. When injuries are not a factor, which they are not currently for Penn State, stopping the run is a team skill set that is slump proof. PSU's run stopping personnel is better across the board than Michigan's offensive front, and I see no reason why Michigan should expect to impose their will.

Penn State's offense is not in the dynamic mold of the Robinson led 2005 team, but it can be serviceable if Clark makes good decisions. The Michigan defense is not scaring anyone, and Penn State should be able to move the ball well with execution. That's always a big if, but across the board, I'm seeing Penn State with the advantage in most relevant match ups here.

Let's face it. There are three teams, Florida, Texas, and USC, that have great players at every position every year and are in position to contend. There is a second tier of teams, PSU is a member, that are very good and break through in some years to contend. In other years, they are still good, but suffer a bad loss or two and fall out of the national title race. This is Penn State this year. They have the most complete team in the Big Ten, but suffered the inexplicable loss to Iowa. Clark was terrible, but that was a program failure. Everyone understands you need home games for revenue, but when you play three straight games to start the year that require no effort or real planning to dominate, you are naturally going to relax a bit. It's human nature. They were not prepared for a hungry Iowa team, and got embarrassed at home. It doesn't mean they don't have excellent players. Players in any sport need to be constantly pushed, or performance wanes. Nobody says you have to schedule Alabama every year, but a couple Oregon State level opponents at home is the proper way to prepare for a championship run.

I believe Penn State has woken up. I know the Big House has been one of horrors, but Lloyd Carr ain't walking through that door, and these players don't care what's happened over the last 10 years. Any way you look at it, Penn State wins the majority of relevant match ups with Michigan across the board. Chalfin will tell you there is some mysticism at work and that Penn State has no chance this Saturday. Just call me Bizarro Pete. Nittanys roll 27-10.