The Penn State Football Show

Pete great analysis, and yes, I did notice your perfect prediction last week. Let's hope that you can do that two weeks in a row. Iowa is a strange team. Every year they seem to be in the top half of the Big Ten, but never spectacular. Stanzi is a great quarterback for Iowa because he runs the offense the exact way that Kirk Ferentz wants. He's not flashy, but he is a smart player. Iowa however is not as good as last year. They lost Shonn Greene, and Jewel Hampton who was supposed to fill his shoes, but they have some young talent. Their defensive line lost Mitch King who was a freak and their strength on defense is probably their secondary. Like Pete said, this is not a high powered offense and a solid defensive performance by Penn State should keep Iowa under 17 points. Can Penn State put points on the board?

I think that last week the running game made some giant leaps, and even though it was against Temple, the team has a little more confidence, and they seem to have found a starting combination for the offensive line. Royster looked much better and ran well inside. I truly believe that for the first 3 games PSU was running plays just to practice them and not really using any strategy to get in the endzone. Against Iowa they can open things up and keep them off balance. Expect Clark to scramble more, maybe not designed runs, but in short yardage I will look for a play action roll out where he may just pull it down and run. We should not lose sight of all of the talent that Penn State has on the offensive side of the ball. They should be able to score 21 without a problem in my opinion. Many are concerned over the loss of Lee, which is huge, but with the weather playing a factor, Iowa will be running a lot, and I feel that Stupar should be able to fill in decently and plug some holes. The defensive line is stout and should give Iowa all sorts of problems in the run game, and hopefully get some pressure on Stanzi. Should be a great game, but I see Penn State pulling this one out without the same drama as last year. Can't wait to get back in Beaver Stadium, the campus is buzzing, and it's great to be back in State College.

Theres not much left to say after Pete's post, mainly because that was the longest post in history. I'm exhausted so I'll try to keep this brief. I think Penn State looked good against Temple and Iowa has looked good against no one. Iowa doesn't hurt themselves when they play in the form of turnovers and penalties but they also don't do much to really win the game either. I think if Penn State can win the turnover battle and just stay alive in a grinder we will win. If we start to get cute, bad things will happen. I think Stanzi's "experience" is bs. We made that kid look like Slinging Sammy Baugh last year when he's really the equivalent of Jefferson Street Joe Gilliam. I really don't see him beating us.

What does scare me is special teams. Our kick coverage is abysmal and I still worry about our kicker. If Bowman plays this game is no contest. However, I don't expect him too which is why Penn State wins 17-13 in a game where the score makes it look closer than it actually is.

-Where is Hottel? This blog is nothing without him.

I really don’t know what to expect in this game. There are so many factors to take into consideration when trying to predict the outcome. Here are some of them:

1. There is no denying that Iowa has had Penn State’s number recently. Everyone remembers the crushing defeat at Iowa last year on the last second field goal, preventing Penn State from playing for the National Championship. But not everyone realizes that Iowa has actually won 6 out of the last 7 matchups between these two. That’s a pretty impressive run. If they make it 7 out 8 this weekend, they will become the new Michigan Wolverines to Penn State fans.

It’s pretty surprising that they’ve had that kind of success against Penn State. Iowa is typically a second tier Big Ten team, behind the likes of OSU, Michigan, Penn State and Wisconsin. They’ve had some great teams in the past 10 years, but even in the years when they are somewhat down, they seem to always play their best game against Penn State. I can’t tell you why it is, maybe Ferentz has JoePa’s number, but Iowa always outperforms their expectations against the Lions.

2. Playing at Beaver Stadium at night is a huge advantage for Penn State. The atmosphere will be electric at this game, especially after what happened last year. The students have sat through three “pre-season” games and have been waiting for this one for a long time. It is very difficult to come in to Beaver Stadium at night and come away with a victory. However, if there is a Big Ten team that I could see being unfazed by the crowd, it’s Iowa. They are very well coached every year, and Stanzi is an experience quarterback that doesn’t often get rattled. It should also be pointed out that in the series between these two teams historically, the visiting team has actually been more successful than the home team, winning 13 out of the 21 games.

3. Penn State has had this game circled on the calendar since last year. Everything that I said about the fans being excited for this game applies twice as much for the players. The Hawkeyes’ one-point victory was the only thing that kept Penn State out of the national championship game. No matter what Paterno says to the media, the players want revenge. And the players are no different from the fans: They have a hard time getting excited to play cream-puffs like Temple and Akron. This is the game they have been waiting for. I would not be surprised to see them come out firing on all cylinders and blow this game open early, similar to the Oregon State game last year.

4. Penn State has not looked good in any of their games yet this season. Perhaps you can chalk this up to the point I just made: The players were not up for the game and played down to the competition. But that should never happen on a well coached team. When you play a sport where you have just one game a week, there is no excuse to have a game where you do not come ready to play. The defense has played well. The secondary remains untested, the defensive line should have gotten a few more sacks, and the defense should have forced more turnovers. But, as a whole, the defense has played well.

The problem lies with the offense. The offense has not been able to get into a rhythm in any of the games yet, which is troubling. Too many drives have ended in punts instead of points. Not enough red zone opportunities have resulted in touchdowns. The running game was completely non-existent until the last game, when it finally started to come along. The offensive line has played poorly, but again, looked a little better last game. Basically, the offense has not shown me anything that makes me think they will succeed against Iowa’s defense. They have many things they must improve on if they want to win this game. Clark will need to run in this game. If they play the way they have so far this year, they will lose. I do have faith that they can still put it all together. Back in 05, the offense took a few games before they started to click. They looked similarly sloppy in the first couple games, and we all remember what happened after that.

5. Iowa has not been particularly impressive either. They opened the season with a near disaster against Northern Iowa, needing to block two field goals at the end of the game to preserve the victory. They bounced back with two good wins over Iowa State and Arizona, so they seem to be on the right track. But nobody seems to know how good this team is. Why, exactly, is GameDay coming to Happy Valley for this one anyway? Miami and VT seems like a better matchup to me.
This game is getting a lot of hype for a game featuring a top 5 team facing an unranked opponent. I guess it’s because they know it is more than that. They know that Penn State has struggled against Iowa in the past and needs to get that monkey of their backs. Iowa came into the season ranked #22, so we know they have talent. I think we will learn a lot about both of these teams on Saturday night. Which is a good thing, because I’m not sure I know anything about either of them right now.

6. Penn State has major injury concerns heading into this game. The Lions’ two best defensive players are hurt in Sean Lee and Navarro Bowman. If I had to guess, I think Bowman will play in this one, but it sounds like Lee won’t be able to go, which hurts tremendously. Yes, PSU has great depth at linebacker, but Lee is the unquestioned leader and the best player on this team. He is irreplaceable. His absence will be noticed if he’s unable to play. Hopefully Bowman is close to 100%. If Lee is out and Bowman is not at full strength, Iowa could have a lot of success running the ball. If both players were at full strength, I think the Hawkeyes would have a very difficult time scoring points.

One the offensive side of the ball, Graham Zug got knocked around a little bit last game, but should be good to go. In my opinion, that’s huge. Zug is clearly Clark’s favorite and most reliable target. The offense lacks rhythm, but Clark and Zug seem to have good chemistry. If Zug weren’t able to go, I’d be worried about the offense’s ability to consistently move the chains – which is exactly what Zug is used for.

7. Analysis: I think this game could go one of two ways. It will either be a low scoring, close game, which would favor Iowa, or Penn State will come out on fire and prove they are the superior team and blow out the Hawkeyes. Neither of these outcomes would surprise me. The reason I say the first option favors Iowa is simply because they have been able to win all of the close games in recent years. I also don’t have much confidence in Penn State’s kicking game just yet.

I don’t think there is any way Iowa can blow out Penn State. They just don’t have the offensive firepower. They always have a great offensive line, a solid running back and a strong defense. Having an experience QB in Stanzi will also help. As I said before, they are always well coached and seem to play their best against the Lions. But I do think Penn State has more talent, and if they are able to put everything together, they are capable of a rout similar to the Oregon State game last year.

I can’t decide which scenario I think is more likely to occur, so I will go with the Penn State blowout as my official prediction so I don’t get yelled at. By the way, did anyone notice I predicted the exact score of the Temple game?

Keys to the game:

Keep the chains moving. PSU will need to convert on third downs. This means Clark will need to run. On defense, if Penn State can stuff the running game, Iowa will be in trouble.

Special Teams: A big return could really spark Penn State like the Illinois game last year. However, they must stop giving up big returns.

Force turnovers: If they can force Iowa into 3rd and long situations, they can definitely force some interceptions off of Stanzi. Astornio hasn’t really had much opportunity to have his name called this year, but I see him having a big game Saturday.

Open up the playbook: Most people believe that PSU has not revealed a lot of their playbook. Now is the time. They have plenty of playmakers they can utilize like Curtis Drake, Devon Smith, and Chaz Powell. Lets draw up some reverses and trick plays, and take a few deep shots to Moye as well.

I waited until today for my review of the Syracuse game hoping the days would calm me down. They didn't. That was maybe the most underwhelming win I've seen in the past couple years. I can't point to a thing we really did well. So I'm going to throw something out there, brace yourselves... Penn State will lose to Michigan and Ohio State this year.

The O-line is a sieve, the running game is in slow motion, Clark is taking way too many licks, our kicker is weak, and Nathan Stupar is the biggest ballerina to ever start at linebacker for PSU. I really don't like the way things are looking. Sometimes teams can play down to competition and step up when it counts. I hope we can do that.

As for the Big Ten I believe Ohio State playing USC so tough did help us a little but Michigan State didn't do us any favors. I think between OSU, Michigan, and us we can put together a strong bowl finish.

Back to PSU, it is now abundantly clear Clark has no plans of scrambling this year. And Pete, I usually defer to you on most football knowledge but idea of him staying in pocket to avoid hits makes about as much sense as Caddyshack 2. I think he would be much better off moving around and going down or out of bounds on his terms.

This week, the running game HAS to be established. Its been lackluster the first two weeks and we need a 100 yard rusher like Rudy needs a girlfriend. I would also like to see more pressure on the quarterback. Leaving Ron Paulus untouched left me more unsatisfied than 8th grade makeout sessions.

This week presents no real interesting matchups in the rest of college football. I am not sure how Cal is only catching 14.5 against Minnesota when they are scoring more than that tool from Twilight in the front row of a Justin Timberlake concert.

Let's hope the boys put on a show before the Big Ten opener.

I have no future in journalism simply because I always find a way to make things seem ok. Things obviously did not go according to plan against a weak Syracuse team, but keep in mind that they are drastically better than last year. Here's a quick look at what went wrong and some possible excuses.

Offensive line: They are playing horribly right now, but to be honest with you the defenses thus far KNOW that Penn State isn't going to pull any rabbits out of a hat. These three warmup games are going to be plain vanilla. Run the ball up the middle, establish the basics for the Big Ten season, and don't give away anything. Think about Iowa...what are they going to be able to evaluate from these performances? It's my belief that Penn State is using 25% of its playbook in these games. They haven't run outside, no options, reverses, wildcat...nothing. And since these teams know Penn State isn't going to try to trick them, they can devote their focus to the run. As a result, Clark has been burning them through the air. I can't say I'm not worried, but I think that the OL is in better shape than we think.

Kick Coverage: I am going to go ahead and blame this on some of the freshman that have gotten sucked in on the coverage instead of staying in their lanes. It's good that this happened against Syracuse as I'm sure some of them got a little bit of a wakeup call. Hopefully they can learn from this and be more disciplined.

Pass rush: Paulus and Syracuse got rid of the ball very quickly. There were no deep throws, and it was tough to get pressure. I expected more, definitely at least a sack by a defensive end, but again I am not too concerned. Odrick and Ogbu are man-bear-pigs up the gut and should leave the DE's one-on-one for much of the season.

Tackling: Wallace and Timmons did miss some tackles, and they weren't even that tough. Stupar also looked like a ballerina one time in the open field, but once again these are correctable mistakes. It's better to go through the "preseason" and see how to improve than just cruising through with perfection. I felt the same way about the Patriots in 2007, everything came to easy, but a few years before, they got embarrassed right before the playoffs by Miami and buckled down and went on the win the Super Bowl.

The WORST thing I saw last weekend was the running game. People can blame the O-line all they want, but Royster and Green don't hit the holes. They prance in there and try to avoid people. Green, I understand is not a great inside runner, but Royster looked terrible. He needs to lower that shoulder and stop wading through the defensive line. Brandon Beachum is someone I would love to see more of. Obviously, I'm not a coach and not at practice every day, but whenever he gets the ball he runs like a Penn State running back should. It wouldn't be a bad idea to use him in short yardage situations, and I realize that whoever was running the ball last week on the goalline would have been stuffed.

The BEST thing I saw last weekend was the linebackers. Bowman is a total freak and hopefully he can stay healthy, and I don't think he will be playing against Temple for good reason. With that said, playing without him is a major loss, but PSU has great great depth. Stupar filled in well, but he still has a lot of room for improvement. Gbadyu got in the game and did a decent job. He's extremely fast and they are planning on using him in Hull's place in sure passing situations. Speaking of Hull, as Pete pointed out he played a great game. He mentioned that the strength of the defensive tackles helps him out since they occupy the linemen so he can make tackles. He looked pretty quick and he's certainly a big guy and made some nice tackles. Then there is Sean Lee, who turned it on in the second half. What a guy. He's going to have a great season, and what he does better than his predecessors Poz and Connor is blitz effectively.

This coming week, I'd like to see some more out of the defensive ends. Jerome Hayes, my favorite guy, is coming up a few tough years of injuries and hopefully he can get it going. This wasn't exactly "quick" as I first stated, but I just finished an exam so I was all jacked up.

Penn State is now ranked 5th in the country by the associated press. There is no way that Penn State is the fifth best team in the country right now. If they are, that does not speak very well for the curernt state of college football.

The GOOD:

Clark looked good. I thought his decision making was much better than the Akron game. He didn't force many throws into coverage, and the one interception was not his fault.

The much maligned Josh Hull actually played the best game of his career on Saturday. He looks greatly improved over last year. He is playing with a lot more confidence and seems to know what he is supposed to be doing on plays. Getting Navarro back will halp too.

Sean Lee is the best player on this team and turned in another great game.

Graham Zug had a great game and looks like he is a very reliable target for Clark with great hands.

Astorino's name has not been called much so far this season, but the kid is a heat-seeking missile.

THE BAD:

Offensive Line again did a terrible job run blocking. They are far from where they need to be, and there is no indication that they will ever get there. I know it is still early, but they should not be having that much trouble opening up holes against Akron and Syracuse. This will be a huge problem if it does not get fixed.

I was not happy with the lack of pressure put on Paulus by the defensive line. I would have expected Crawford and co. to haev a field day and pick up some sacks. They stuffed the run very well, but they need to get in the quarterback's face a little more. It was nice to see Devon Still get a lot of playing time. They rotated a lot of guys in, including freshman Sean Stanely at one point.

Kick Coverage: They allowed two big returns. This has been a problem in the past and needs to be addressed. On the other side, I still don't like Royster returning punts.

Tackling: AJ Wallace and Knowledge Timmons did a real poor job of tackling in this game.



Big Ten

I watched most of the Michigan - ND game. I thought ND was going to have their way with Michigan, and offensively, they did. Claussen played great, and they scored points at will. However, where I was completley wrong, was on the other side of the ball. I did not expect Michigan to be so succesful on offense behind a true freshman quarterback. But that's because I didn't realize that Tate Forcier is an absolute stud. In fact, I was so certain of Michigan's inability to score points that I bet money on the Irish. In just his second career start, Tate Forcier cost me $50.00. Kind of reminds me of Andy Dufresne in the Shawshank Redemption. He is already my most hated player in college football.

I am saying it right now, I am scared at the prospect of having to face this kid for four years. He can run and throw very well, and showed incredible poise for a truse freshman making his second start. He really impressed me with his decision making and his ability to make plays. He looked like a fifth-year senior out there. I knew it was only a matter of time before Michigan turned things around, but I honestly thought it would not be for at least another year. I hate to say it, but it would not surprise me at all to see Penn State lose at the Big House this year. You may think I am going overboard, especially from just one game, but that's how I feel.

Ohio State played a good game and had USC on the ropes and blew it. I thought they had the game in the bag since USC's offense wasn't moving the ball at all. I still can't believe they drove the entire field to win the game. Tough loss for the Big Ten, but at least they didn't get blown out. Terrelle Pryor is not that good.

Michigan State losing hurts the Big Ten badly. What a pathetic way to lose a game too. Purdue put in a great effort against Oregon, but lost by 2. Other than that, way too many close calls in the Big Ten.

-49ers will make the playoffs this year.

I agree with a lot of the stuff Drew said in his post. Especially about mobile quarterbacks purposely staying in the pocket just to prove themselves as a passer. This hurts the team. Like Drew said, having a mobile quarterback in college opens up so many doors for the offense. I also know that the coaching staff really doesn't want Clark to run very much because they don't want him to get hurt since they don't have an experienced back-up. They did the same thing with Mills. Mills was a great runner, but they tried to protect him and didn't let him run any more, and that really hurt the offense.

In terms of the Akron game, there is not a whole lot to say, and the little that there is to say has already been said. O-line is not there yet, and Clark made some bad decisions. Other than that you can't take much from that game. Syracuse played well against Minnesota, so they might provide a good test, but we all know that the real season doesn't begin until Iowa, and you can't learn much about the team until they play some tough games.

Drew if you are going to bet this weekend, I'd say put your money on Notre Dame over Michigan. They are only giving like 3.5 points. I think the Irish go into the Big House and win that game by at least two touchdowns. Michigan is not very good, and they have a true freshman at quarterback. Notre Dame is not very bad, and Clausen is actually pretty good now. Take advantage of the fact that Michigan actually looked good last week. I don't think they will look good again for a while.

Also, in regards to USC OSU... not so fast my friend. I think it will be low scoring. I can't see a true freshman quarterback having much success against Ohio State's defense in the horse shoe at night in a tough environment. If he proves me wrong, I will be thoroughly impressed. I can already tell Barkley is going to be a great one, but he's so inexperienced, it will be tough. Although if anyone can prepare him for success, its Pete Carrol. On the other side, OSU doesn't have a very dominant offense either. I think points will be at a premium, but we will have to wait and see.

What is Micahel Crabtree's deal?!